Astros vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Fenway Fireworks

The Astros and their heavy-hitting lineup take on a red-hot Nathan Eovaldi at Fenway, looking to clinch their series with Boston. With Jake Odorizzi struggling on the mound, find out if Houston's bats can provide value with our Astros vs. Red Sox picks.

Zachary Cohen - Contributor at Covers.com
Jun 9, 2021 • 09:00 ET • 3 min read
Jose Altuve Houston Astros MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

On Wednesday, June 9, the Boston Red Sox host the Houston Astros at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts for a 7:10 p.m. ET game. The Astros won the first game in this series, so the Sox will be looking to even things up here. 

Will Houston secure the three-game series with a win tonight? Find out in our Astros vs. Red Sox picks and predictions. 

Astros vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Wednesday, June 9, 2021
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, NESN

Astros vs Red Sox odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

As of 2:30 p.m. ET, Boston is up to a -137 favorite at TwinSpires Sportsbook, after opening -125. The Red Sox are drawing 56 percent of moneyline bets and 67 percent of moneyline cash. The total rose from 9.5 to 10, with 70 percent of bets/64 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Astros vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jake Odorizzi (0-3, 7.16 ERA): Odorizzi had a great year with the Twins in 2019, going 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA. Since then, the righty has struggled to stay healthy and find his form. One would think that he’ll eventually turn it around, though. The 31-year-old did show flashes in 5.1 innings of one-run ball against the San Diego Padres on May 29, but he gave up three earned in just three innings against this Red Sox team his next time out, on June 3. 

Nathan Eovaldi (7-2, 3.78 ERA): Eovaldi has allowed only three earned runs in his last three starts, a span in which he has thrown 16.2 innings and struck out 18 batters. The 31-year-old is really pitching well at the moment, but he has been worse at Fenway. In eight starts at home this season, Eovaldi has a 4.47 ERA. He’ll have to find a way to be better against an Astros lineup that has scored more runs than nearly every team in baseball.  

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Astros: C Jason Castro (out), RP Pedro Baez (out)
Red Sox: RP Ryan Brasier (out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Astros are 6-2 in their last eight games against the AL East.  Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox.

Moneyline pick

It’s rare that the opposing team in an Astros game will seem too good to be true, but that’s exactly how things look in this meeting with the Red Sox. With a red-hot Eovaldi on the mound against this version of Odorizzi, one would think that Boston would be a rather significant favorite in this game. However, that is not the case in this one, and that makes the Astros look like the sharper side here. 

The Astros also have a small history of success against Eovaldi, which is a welcome sight for Houston bettors. In his career, Jose Altuve is 5 for 15 with a double, two homers, and two RBI against Boston’s righty, and Carlos Correa is 4 for 13 against him, but hasn’t yet come through with any extra-base hits or RBI. Look for that to change in this one, as it’s just an outright strange statistic. It’s also just a matter of time before Eovaldi gives up a homer against a left-handed hitter. The righty hasn’t yet done that this season, and that means that he’s due. Look for somebody like Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker or Michael Brantley to come through. 

As for Odorizzi, it’s understandable to be skeptical about backing him. However, he just got a chance to see this Red Sox lineup, and he’ll now look to make some adjustments. Odorizzi is a good pitcher, so that experience helps him out. Also, he’s going to get more and more comfortable the more he’s out there. All Houston needs from him is something like a quality start. And now that Odorizzi’s arm is healthier, second-half turnaround isn’t out of the question. 

PREDICTION: Astros +115

Over/Under pick

The Astros are coming off a seven-run performance against the Red Sox last night, and they have now scored 28 runs over their last four contests. A 13-run performance against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 4 definitely jacked that number up, but Houston is as explosive offensively as any team in Major League Baseball. 

The Astros should be able to find some success against Eovaldi, who Is prone to making mistakes. The Red Sox are likely to help, too. Boston is very good against right-handed pitching and gets a struggling starter, in addition to a mediocre Houston bullpen. Overall, a lot of runs should be expected in a game like this. When totals are set this high, it’s usually for a reason. 

PREDICTION: Over 10.0 (-102) 

Astros vs Red Sox betting card

  • Astros +115
  • Over 10.0 (-102) 

Picks made on 6/9/2021 at 3:35 a.m. ET

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