Boston Red Sox fans and backers are hoping their offense has finally woken up after their bats have led them to victories in four of six, including a 6-3 series-opening win over the Houston Astros.
Now, the Red Sox will try to win the series when they hand the ball to their most reliable starter in Nathan Eovaldi, while the Astros counter with Jose Urquidy. So, which righty has the edge in a game that has the BoSox as slight home favorites.
Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Astros vs. Red Sox on Tuesday, May 17.
Astros vs Red Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This American League matchup opened with the Red Sox’s listed at -110 and has seen the early money, moving the line to -125. The total hit the board at 9 and has been bet down to 8.5 with that number slightly juiced to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs Red Sox predictions
Picks made on 5/17/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Tuesday, May 17, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Astros vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jose Urquidy (2-1, 4.40 ERA): It has been a shaky start to the season for Urquidy, giving up 34 hits over his first six starts, but the right hander has allowed just one run on nine hits over his last nine innings of work.
Nathan Eovaldi (1-1, 3.15 ERA): Not a lot has gone right for the Red Sox this season but Eovaldi has still been his reliable self. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start this season while pitching at least five innings in six of seven outings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Astros: No key injuries to report.
Red Sox: Jeremy Pena SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Astros and Red Sox. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox
Astros vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Red Sox are hoping things are starting to turn around after last night’s big 6-3 win in Game 1 against the Astros.
Last night was highlighted by big hits from Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez, a welcoming sign for a team that was struggling at the dish heading into this series — ranking 24th in OPS and 23rd in runs scored. It was the fourth time over the last six games they have plated six or more runs and it’s no coincidence they are 4-2 over that stretch.
Now, they’ll get a chance to keep those hot bats going when they face off against Astros starter Jose Urquidy.
Despite only giving up one run over his last nine innings of work, the righty has yet to find his good stuff this season. Urquidy has never been a big strikeout guy, but he hasn’t been locating as well as he usually does and has been hit hard as a result.
Opponents are getting to him for an expected batting average of .321 and an expected slugging percentage of .631, and after last night the Red Sox now rank 12th in batting average when facing right-handed pitchers.
The BoSox counter Urquidy with their most reliable starter in Nathan Eovaldi. He has been solid this season and has had a good stretch of games over his last four starts, pitching to a 2.81 ERA while striking out 23 batters compared to four walks over 25 1-3 innings.
The Astros do a solid job of hitting right handers, but Eovaldi has battled well against this team in the past, including in last year’s postseason where he allowed four earned runs on 10 hits over 9 2-3 innings in two ALCS matchups.
The Boston bats look like a good bet to take advantage of the matchup against a struggling Urquidy, and should build up enough of a lead to take this one home. Lean towards the favorite here.
Prediction: Red Sox moneyline (-120 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
While there could be some debate as to what side the value is on in this matchup, the total looks like a more solid bet. Despite the early money coming in on the Under, at 8.5 that is low enough to consider the other side.
As noted, the Red Sox have a great opportunity to keep their bats rolling against Urquidy. They are plating 6.17 runs per game over their last six games and the last time they face this pitcher, they got to him for five runs on five hits in just an inning and 2-3.
Conversely, while Eovaldi is solid, he hasn’t been unhittable by any means. In fact, he is surrendering a .271 expected batting average to opponents, and now faces an Astros team that ranks fifth in OPS when it comes to facing right-handed pitchers this season, and has plated 6.13 runs per game over their last eight contests.
Bet on the bats to do their thing tonight and send the game Over the total.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Best bet
As I’ve clearly eluded to, the hitters on both sides should have the edge on the starters. Both pitchers have notably higher xERAs than standard ones while also getting hit hard, and now face deep and dangerous lineups. Don’t be surprised if the scoring happens early on.
Pick: Over 4.5 first five innings (-110 at DraftKings)
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