Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not reach the same conclusion as I do but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Wedesday, October 9.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: October 9
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BTTS 1+ runs in 1st three innings (+170)
Guardians moneyline (-105)- /
Cobb & Suarez 3+ strikeouts (+127)
Today’s best SP angles
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres
The angle: Early scoring with these lineups and pitchers is coming.
Yesterday we hit the San Diego Padres team total o1.5 in the first three innings for +135 and I'm looking at the F3 market again today, but for a bigger price.
Both teams to score 1+ run over the first three frames is +170 at DraftKings today. Early scoring has been a theme in these series as starting pitching hasn't been elite and the top of both of lineups is stacked. There were 10 runs scored in the first three innings yesterday, four in Game 2, and eight in the opener. This prop has hit in each game of the series.
The Los Angeles Dodgers already tagged Dylan Cease in the series opener for five runs in 10 outs and Landon Knack will be the worst starting pitcher appearing in this series — if he appears, because Dave Roberts announced it would be a bullpen game after Tuesday's loss. Both teams to score 2+ runs in the first three innings is +600 and also worth a sniff.
Just like yesterday, expect a lot of early fireworks before the bullpens settle it down. The Padres are hitting almost .500 in the opening three innings of the series.
The move: Both teams to score 1+ runs - 1st three innings (+170 at DraftKings)
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers
The angle: Without Tarik Skubal, the Guardians' offense will plate vs. "chaos".
The Cleveland Guardians were blanked by Tarik Skubal. Today, they will face a parade of Detroit Tigers relievers and will be able to play with a lead and let their bullpen hold it.
Emmanuel Clase hurt me in Game 2 but this is still the best bullpen in baseball. I don't understand how the Guardians are a dog in this spot. Detroit has scored in just one of 18 innings in the series.
Alex Cobb will go 12 outs and hand things over to a bullpen that has held Detroit down except for Clase. I like the Guardians on the ML at -105 but I think it's a buy even to -120. Cleveland's team total Over 3.5 at -110 is also a look but the ML is safer with how good the bullpen still is. Cleveland can win 7-0 or 3-0 today.
The move: Guardians moneyline (-105 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
The angle: Alex Cobb and Ranger Suarez might be going longer than expected.
Both Cobb and Philadelphia Phillies SP Ranger Suarez opened with an outs market of just 11.5, which has moved to 12.5 at most books. THE BAT has the duo pitching 70+ pitches each if all goes well and both their K props are showing value to the Over.
There is some worry with both pitchers as neither has pitched in the playoffs yet but you can combine both guys getting 3+ Ks at +127 at DraftKings. If they get their 12 outs, that could be a very easy Over even on that modest projection.
The Tigers offense is not a worry while Suarez has been a K/9 pitcher all season. Both starters are being undervalued on their potential leashes and each arm should hit 3+ Ks for plus money. Cobb projects for 3.87 while Suarez sits at 4.41.
The move: Alex Cobb 3+ strikeouts + Ranger Suarez 3+ strikeouts (+127 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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