Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Friday, September 13.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 13
Gomber u3.5 earned runs (+115)
Crochet u5.5 strikeouts (+110)
Aldegheri o3.5 strikeouts (-105)
deGrom u6.5 strikeouts (-115)
Today’s best SP angles
Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies
The angle: Austin Gomber is riding the high of baby No.3
This is a first here in Edges and Angles, but Austin Gomber is coming off the paternity list after he and his wife welcomed their third child to the family. Thanks to some inflated numbers because of Coors Field, some Unders are looking good tonight vs. the Chicago Cubs.
I'm not looking to hit his Under 15.5 outs, as he has topped this number in five straight starts and has a 3.00 ERA over that stretch, but he could remain sharp today running on adrenaline. His Under 3.5 earned runs is paying a solid +115 and he projects for 3.47 runs across 81 pitches. He has elite command — which always helps in this market — and since he has been off for eight days, he could have a shorter leash.
I don't usually back pitchers at Coors, but the baby news has created a few angles here with the most objective being the extra time off for the Colorado Rockies hurler.
The move: Austin Gomber Under 3.5 earned runs (+115 at bet365)
Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox
The angle: Garrett Crochet is likely not throwing more than 60 pitches.
Garrett Crochet only has a couple of starts left and the team is handling him with kid gloves. He has not thrown more than 57 pitches in four straight starts and has not recorded more than 12 outs either. There is nothing to make me believe he is going to top that workload today vs. the Oakland Athletics.
The Chicago White Sox starter has a K prop of 5.5 that is still plus money to the Under. If he is only going to get 12 outs, are 50% of them coming via the punchout? Likely not with a 35% K rate on the season. He has also been hit hard with a 7.09 ERA since the All-Star break, spanning 26+ innings. His last outing lasted just six total outs.
Everything has to go right for this Over to hit, and Oakland isn't even a Top-10 K% team over the last 30 days.
The move: Garrett Crochet Under 5.5 strikeouts (+110 at DraftKings)
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels
The angle: Samuel Aldegheri is stretched out and has K potential the books aren't pricing in.
Los Angeles Angels starter Samuel Aldegheri threw 90 pitches in his last start and racked up seven punchouts. This is a lefty that had a whopping 133 Ks over 95 innings in the minors this year. He has good stuff and a long leash, but books are pricing his K prop with a total of 3.5. I love this Over and there is room for more than four Ks here.
This isn't the best K matchup, but the Houston Astros have a similar strikeout rate as the Rangers, who stuck out seven times vs. the southpaw. This has ladder potential up to seven at +850. This Over 3.5 at -105 is a strong play, so let's add the 5+ at +210 for a half unit, too.
It's just his third start in the MLB, so books are slow to pick up on his potential workload.
The move: Samuel Aldegheri Over 3.5 strikeouts (-105 at bet365)
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners
The angle: Jacob deGrom is back but he is not going to get deep.
Jacob deGrom has been off all season as he has been recovering from Tommy John surgery, but will make his season debut tonight vs. the Seattle Mariners. Her only threw 49 pitches in his last start, where he went 12 outs and struck out five. He might get to 60 pitches, but that has to be it. His K prop is sitting at 6.5 and although it's the Mariners, that's a lot of Ks if he is only going 12 to 15 outs.
Seattle has been known as the worst K% team in baseball but it has improved those numbers over the last 30 days, ranking ninth at 25%. The Texas Rangers are basically out of the playoffs so there is no need to push the pricey right-hander, who has struggled to stay on the mound over the last half decade. He has not thrown more than 100 innings since 2019.
It will be sweaty, but the Under is the right side in his debut.
The move: Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 strikeouts (-115 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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