Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want, if you're betting pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Thursday, August 29.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: August 29
Kochanowicz o15.5 outs (+105)
Eovaldi o5.5 hits allowed (+105)
Aguiar u4.5 strikeouts (-105)
Francis u5.5 hits allowed (-110)
Brown u17.5 outs (+140)
Today’s best SP angles
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers
The angle: Jack Kochanowicz can get deep but is priced at 15.5 outs.
Jack Kochanowicz is giving up a ton of hits in his first year in the Majors with 34 hits allowed in 26+ innings, but the 6-foot-7 rookie is in the zone and can get early outs. He has gone at least 18 outs in three straight starts — and has done so on just 252 total pitches. Guys are swinging early on him, as he has no K stuff with just eight punchouts on the year.
Books are still pricing him as a 75-80 pitch starter when he has shown he can go 90 to 95 pitches if needed. He doesn't walk guys and is using just 3.35 pitches per batter, which is an elite number in terms of efficiency... as the league leader (qualified) is 3.5 pitches per batter.
He can get hit around and still go more than 15 outs.
The move: Jack Kochanowicz Over 15.5 outs (+105 at BetMGM)
Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox
The angle: Nathan Eovaldi is coming off a season-high 106 pitches.
The Texas starter has hit triple digits in pitches in back-to-back starts, which was the first time he's done that since June 2023. Nathan Eovaldi is also 12 innings away from posting his highest IP total since 2021.
He has also allowed three or more runs in five straight starts and has hit the Under on the 6.5 K prop in four of his last five turns.
It's an easier matchup vs. the White Sox in an afternoon game which has me hesitant to fade the veteran but bet365 has his Over 5.5 hits allowed at +105 this morning with Pinnacle sitting at -114. He has gone Over this number in five straight, and seven of his last eight, and also has struggled on the road this year with a H/9 of 10.2 (vs. a 6.4 H/9 at home).
I'd buy this to -105/-110 as he projects for 5.95 hits allowed on 96 pitches.
The move: Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 hits allowed (+105 at bet365)
Oakland Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds
The angle: Books are struggling to price Julian Aguiar in his third MLB start.
Julian Aguiar has an easy matchup on paper vs. the Oakland A's but there is value in his Under 4.5 Ks as it projects for 4.15 today.
The A's actually aren't whiffing that much, ranking 20th in K% entering today. It's also at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, which will be a sweaty 93 degrees — the hottest setting on the slate today.
The right-hander had a better K matchup in his last start (vs. the Pirates) and finished with four punchouts on 18 outs and 91 pitches, both of which are high workload numbers. This will be his first start at GABP and his u4.5 Ks at -105 is a buy to -120/-125.
Pinnacle is currently at -137, indicating the way this market is going. If he comes out of this game with two or three strikeouts, his market could drastically fall. The matchup is boosting the market but bettors tend to underestimate bad teams.
The move: Julian Aguiar Under 4.5 strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox
The angle: Bowden Francis is coming off a 117-pitch workload.
Bowden Francis took a no-hitter into the ninth inning in his last start and while he didn't secure it... he ended up with 117 pitches — 22 pitches more than his previous start. The Toronto bullpen has barely been used over the last six days and Francis might have a shorter leash than usual today in Boston.
I'm not betting his Under 15.5 outs, as I feel the books hadn't priced his outs properly even in his last start, but his Under 5.5 hits allowed is likely the best way to take advantage of a lower-volume game.
On the season, Francis has allowed just 58 hits over 71+ innings and has gone Over this number just two times over eight starts. He projects for 5.0 hits allowed today, per THE BAT, and is expected to throw just 86 pitches.
The move: Bowden Francis Under 5.5 hits allowed (-110 at DraftKings)
Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros
The angle: Hunter Brown is coming off a career-high 107 pitches.
Hunter Brown has already earned a long leash but logged more pitches than he had ever thrown in his last outing. He also has a tough matchup vs. the Royals and is paying a hefty +140 to go Under 17.5 outs, which is tough to pass up.
Although I don't think the Astros will try to scale him back today, as Brown has gone 94+ pitches in 10 of his last 11 starts, the Houston bullpen basically had the night off yesterday and needs to get some arms in for work; its high-leverage arms have not pitched in two straight days.
This is more of a play on price than anything but the high pitch count, matchup, and bullpen needs are having me bet this Under. It's a buy to +125. Think 50/50 at +140.
The move: Hunter Brown Under 17.5 outs (+140 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
