The Texas Rangers take a five-game winning streak to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs on Monday, April 7, and the North Siders just had their own five-game winning streak snapped Sunday.
The 6.0 total for tonight’s game is low, and my Rangers vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks call for both offenses to do enough damage to go Over the number — even with the forecasted difficult hitting conditions in the Windy City.
Rangers vs Cubs prediction
My Rangers vs Cubs best bet: Over 6 (-105 at Caesars)
If the weather forecast is accurate, the Windy City will live up to its name this evening, with the wind gusting in from left-center field. The temperature hovering around freezing isn’t ideal for batters, either.
It’s more than built into this total, though, and there are a few factors that I don’t think are being accounted for enough.
First, Justin Steele hasn’t been particularly sharp to start the season. To begin with, he’s not an overpowering arm, and both his velocity and pitch values are down across the board, per FanGraphs.
It has resulted in Steele opening the year with a worrisome 6.89 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with his 7.47 K/9 and 19.4% K-rate standing as early career-low marks. Steele’s 3.85 xFIP suggests better times ahead, but the margin for error is thin with a 6.0 total. Plus, the Chicago bullpen sports a 28th-ranked 5.27 xFIP.
The Texas Rangers also head to Wrigley Field with a solid .352 wOBA, .333 on-base percentage, and .216 ISO against southpaws to start the year.
Turning to Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi, he’s been next to flawless out of the gate and is coming on a complete game shutout against the Cincinnati Reds. Eovaldi fanned eight and finished with 99 pitches.
Nathan Eovaldi's final opponent of the night: The red-hot Elly De La Cruz
— MLB (@MLB) April 2, 2025
Nasty Nate got the job done ✅ pic.twitter.com/IdlZOKlCYy
His start is unsustainable long term, with Eovaldi limiting opposing hitters to a .182 BABIP, and he’s yet to issue a free pass this season.
I’m anticipating the Chicago Cubs lineup doing what it’s done against every pitcher its faced since returning from the Tokyo Series, and that’s working the count and finding green.
The Cubs have a league-high 13.6% walk rate with a third-ranked .362 wOBA and fourth-ranked .363 on-base percentage over the 10-game stretch.
While we might not see many baseballs leaving the yard tonight at Wrigley, I’m confident in both offenses picking away to enable this game to go Over the number.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Rangers vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 6
Marcus Semien Over 0.5 runs scored
Wyatt Langford Over 0.5 RBI
Diving deeper into Steele’s struggles, his swinging strike percentage is down to just 8.6% after posting a 10.6% mark is 2024, and both his contact percentage (83.5%) and zone-contact percentage (94.2%) are up from his 79.1% and 86.5% ratios.
It’s the same story with his hard-hit rates (42.0% vs. 32.7%) and barrel percentages (10.0% vs. 4.2%) both on the rise to start 2025.
As a result, I’m anticipating the top of the Texas order to have success against Steele tonight.
In particular, leadoff man Marcus Semien and No. 3 hitter Wyatt Langford have been solid against lefties. Semien has a solid .331 wOBA and .344 OBP against southpaws dating back to last season, and Langford comes in even better with respective .377 and .358 marks.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Double your winnings for 10 separate bets at Caesars
Sign up for a Caesars account — using our exclusive promo code BASEBALLDYW — and get 10x profit boost tokens worth 100% each!
Register now to collect your Double your winning tokens, or learn more with our comprehensive Caesars Sportsbook review.
Rangers vs Cubs odds
Rangers vs Cubs live odds
Rangers vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas +100 | Chicago -120
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-220) | Chicago -1.5 (+180)
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Rangers vs Cubs trend
The Chicago Cubs have hit the moneyline in 44 of their last 75 games (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Cubs.
How to watch Rangers vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Monday, 4-7-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | RSN, Marquee |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 1.20 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Justin Steele (2-1, 6.89 ERA) |
Rangers vs Cubs latest injuries
Rangers vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
