Yankees vs Tigers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

The New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers will meet at Comerica Park in this afternoon's lone day game.

With Detroit coming off a sweep of the lowly White Sox, my Yankees vs. Tigers predictions are finding value in the home team's player prop markets.

I break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet on Monday, April 7th.

Yankees vs Tigers prediction

My Yankees vs Tigers best bet: Colt Keith to get a hit (-113 at Caesars)

From a side perspective, this game has been bet to nearly fair odds. 

There may be slight value on the Detroit Tigers, but there are certainly better options for the board. My projections made the New York Yankees around -155 here and +132 coming back on the other side. With that in mind, creating a pick on either side isn't easy. As for the total, I was also closely aligned with the oddsmakers and projected a run total of 8.2. 

So we're rolling with Colt Keith to get a hit on the MLB player props market. At the current price point, we saw around an 8% edge, which allows us to pick on Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon — something I plan to do throughout the season.

The Yankees want him to become an ace-level pitcher after Gerrit Cole's season-ending Tommy John surgery. That's increasingly difficult for me to see.

The lefty opened the year allowing one run on four hits and two walks against the Brewers in his Opening Day outing. The follow-up wasn't as rosy, as the Diamondbacks scored four runs in six innings as Rodon issued four walks.

And his underlying metrics still showed the same issues from a season ago. Last year, his hard-hit and barrel rates were in the bottom 35% of baseball. Those issues still look the same, even after two starts.

I like the chances for Keith to capitalize. You won't see tremendous power from him, and his price to get a hit reflects this. However, it's worth mentioning that his barrel rate this season has made a big jump from his rookie campaign. What's more noteworthy is his success against the fastball (a pitch Rondon leans on a ton).

Keith started the season with an impressive batting average of .296 against the heater, with an expected slugging and expected batting average higher than his actual numbers. That suggests that his approach is strong and expects some positive regression against this pitch as the year progresses.

As a final feather in our cap, Keith carries a really low pinch-hit risk of around 6%. I'll take him to find a barrel today. He'll come into this game with a day of rest after having Sunday off. The two times that's happened this year resulted in a hit in the next game. Here's to that happening a third time.

Caesars QuickPick: Our Yankees vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)

Colt Keith to get a hit

Oswaldo Cabrera to get a hit

Under 8.5

+612 at Caesars

I added Oswaldo Cabrera to join the hit party with some small value against my number. I like how the young third baseman has started the season, and I'll back a hot bat who doesn't chase pitches against a pitcher reliant on it.

I finished things up with the Under. This is mostly a projection play where I saw a very small amount of value in getting the hook. Although I'm low on Rodon this season, the Tigers offense isn't exactly daunting, and Casey Mize has started the year very well for Detroit.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs Tigers odds

Yankees vs Tigers live odds

Yankees vs Tigers opening odds

• Moneyline: New York -141 | Detroit +118
• Run line: New York -1.5 (+118) | Detroit +1.5 (-141)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)

Odds courtesy of Caesars.

Yankees vs Tigers trend

The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 away games (+16.30 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Tigers.

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