After a back-and-forth first two games, we get the rubber match between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Houston Astros on Wednesday night. The Astros thumped the Blue Jays 9-2 in the series opener, but Toronto bounced back in Game 2 with a 4-2 win on Tuesday.
And now it feels like anything can happen in Wednesday’s series finale. The MLB odds have the Blue Jays as slight road favorites for this matchup, which is interesting since they are on the road against the defending World Series champions. Oh, and they hand the ball to the uber-volatile Jose Berrios.
Which version of Berrios will show up for this AL matchup? I’m not sure anyone knows, but I’ll break down the odds and bring you my best bet in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Astros.
Blue Jays vs Astros odds
Blue Jays vs Astros predictions
The Blue Jays got a much-needed great start out of Chris Bassitt last night. The right-hander threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Astros, and now the Jays are hoping they can get a similar performance out of Jose Berrios.
Unfortunately, it’s Jose Berrios. The Blue Jays’ right-hander is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball, and the early part of this season is a perfect example of that.
Berrios had surrendered 12 earned runs on 15 hits in just 9 2/3 innings of work. But then he went out and dominated what was a 13-0 Rays team, allowing one run on four hits while striking out six in five innings, in a start that would have gone longer if he hadn't taken a comebacker of his leg in the fifth.
So, the million-dollar question is, which Jose Berrios will we get in this matchup? It’s hard to know for certain, but this matchup isn’t in his favor.
Despite the good outing against the Rays, Berrios is still getting hit hard. In fact, he ranks in the Bottom 4% in hard-hit percentage while giving up a .285 expected batting average to opponents.
He also has struggled more when he’s away from the Rogers Centre. He owned a 6.36 ERA on the road last season, and those two ugly starts to begin the year were unsurprisingly, both on the road.
Even though Houston’s bats have been a little cold to start the season, we saw in the opener they can go off at any time, particularly against a guy like Berrios who throws a lot of meatballs over the middle of the plate.
It’s also been a rough start to the season for Astros’ starter Luis Garcia. I believe he is one of the guys more affected by the pitch clock. But the right-hander has been fairly consistent during his first two full big-league seasons, pitching to a 3.60 ERA.
That consistency plus the even money means I like Houston to take this game and the series.
My best bet: Astros moneyline (+100 at SIA)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB same-game parlay at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Blue Jays vs Astros moneyline analysis
This game hit the board with the Blue Jays as about +105 underdogs. However, they have seen most of the money today, moving them all the way to -120 favoritism. And as I alluded to above, the wrong team is favored here.
Berrios has just been far too inconsistent since the start of last season to be favored in this spot against an experienced and talented team. On the road no less.
The reasoning behind the Jays being favored is Astros starter Luis Garcia has struggled in his first three starts, pitching to a 7.71 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP, and he’s going against a dangerous Jays lineup. Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Matt Chapman are particularly locked in at the moment. (I recommend taking the Over 1.5 on Chapman’s total bases tonight as well).
But I think that could mean more for the total than the moneyline. Check out below.
Blue Jays vs Astros Over/Under analysis
The total for the finale of this AL series hit the board at 9.5 and has actually come down to 9 as of Wednesday afternoon. I would lean toward the Over here.
Garcia is struggling. He’s going against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks fourth in batting average, and seventh in OPS when facing right-handed pitching this season while scoring 4.87 runs per game. While Berrios is seemingly always one inning away from a bad start, and is going against a sleeping giant of an Astros lineup. And yet, despite their struggles, are also putting up 4.87 runs per game.
I think we could see some fireworks in this one.
Blue Jays vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 19, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ATTP, Sportsnet |
Blue Jays vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (1-2, 7.98 ERA): It looked like the same old issues for Berrios to start the season. Two ugly starts, then a matchup against the 13-0 Rays. Of course, he goes out and throws a gem. A Berrios start is always an adventure.
Luis Garcia (0-2, 7.71 ERA): Garcia hasn't been able to settle into a groove yet this season. He has yet to pitch more than five innings and has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his first three starts.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Astros are 10-4 in their last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Astros
