All things considered, with the injuries and some trouble hitting with runners in scoring position, the Toronto Blue Jays can be reasonably happy with their 8-5 start sitting atop the American League East standings.
But they are in the middle of a tough stretch where they play 20 games in 20 days, which includes this weekend’s series in Houston against the Astros. They’ll face a tough challenge, going against a revitalized Justin Verlander. Can the Jays pull off the upset as underdogs, or will Verlander and the Astros prove too much as sizeable favorites?
Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Astros on Friday, April 22.
Blue Jays vs Astros odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Blue Jays opened this AL battle as +145 underdogs, and with Verlander on the bump the early money has come in on the Astros, moving the Jays to +155. The total hit the board at 9.0, but bettors jumped on the Under hard as it has come down to 8.0 at some shops as of Friday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Astros predictions
- Prediction: Blue Jays (+155)
- Prediction: Under 8.5 (-120)
- Best bet: Under 8.5 (-120)
- Best bet: Under 4.5 first five innings (-125)
Picks made on 4/22/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Blue Jays vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Friday, April 22, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, AT&T Sportsnet
Blue Jays vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ross Stripling (0-0, 3.00 ERA): After one good and one not-so-good relief appearance, Stripling made his first start of the season last week, and the right-hander was impressive. Stripling threw four shutout innings against the A’s, allowing just two hits and striking out three on 62 pitches.
Justin Verlander (1-1, 0.69 ERA): The Astros and their fans couldn’t be happier to see how their ace has returned to the mound after missing all last season. The right-hander has pretty much looked like his old self, allowing one run on six hits while striking out 15 in 13 innings over his first two starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Blue Jays: George Springer CF (Probable), Teoscar Hernandez OF (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out).
Astros: Jose Altuve 2B (Out), Ryan Pressly RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Blue Jays' last four games overall and 5-1-1 in the Astros' last seven. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Astros
Blue Jays vs Astros picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays are coming off a series win against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park where they allowed just five runs over three games, and they’ll hope that strong pitching continues on Friday night because they know they’ll be up against one of the best in the business in Justin Verlander.
Verlander has looked outstanding in his first action since July 2020. Not only has the right-hander barely been hit (opponents have an expected batting average of .195 against him) but his fastball looks crisp and his velocity on it is about the same as before the injury. He has 15 strikeouts compared to just three walks.
This Blue Jays lineup, even with some injuries, will be the toughest lineup he’s had to navigate this season. Despite the Jays' struggles to drive in runs with runners in scoring position, the team still ranks fifth in batting average and sixth in OPS when facing right-handed pitching. Plus, they lead the MLB in home runs.
The Jays counter Verlander with Ross Stripling, who gets another spot start with Hyun-jin Ryu still on the injured list. He looked great in his first start this season and he now faces an Astros lineup that will be without Jose Altuve and has been really struggling with its timing early in the season.
The Astros are hitting just .206 with a .663 OPS when facing right-handed pitching this season, which ranks 24th and 16th respectively.
Houston should definitely be favored with Verlander on the hill, but definitely not by this much. The value is with the underdogs in this matchup.
Prediction: Blue Jays (+155 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, the early money has been on the Under and I’d have to say, I’m leaning that way as well.
For those who don’t know, Under has been cashing about 60% of the time early on this season and while there will certainly be a regression to the mean, I’m not thinking this will be the game that starts that trend.
For starters, Verlander has looked almost shockingly good in his return to the mound and he has great career numbers against most of the Blue Jays. Almost more impressively, he has logged five and eight innings in his first two starts. Then he hands the ball to a bullpen that has the fifth-best ERA so far this season.
It must be noted that the Jays are hitting just .167 with runners in scoring position at this point. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks and Baltimore Orioles are worse. Once again, this is something that will improve over time, but just maybe not tonight.
When it comes to the Astros bats, they have plated three runs or fewer in eight of their 12 ball games and aren’t much better than the Jays when it comes to hitting with runners in scoring position, batting just .190.
Stripling has a chance to be solid for four or five innings and so too does the Jays’ pen. They own a 0.97 WHIP and a .191 opponent batting average as a staff. That ranks third and fourth respectively in the MLB.
Jump on an Under 8.5 before they are all gone.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-120 at bet365)
Best bets
As you can probably tell, I like the Under in this game. Obviously, both teams have a chance to be shut down by the pitching in this matchup, but particularly early on.
Houston ranks 27th in the MLB when it comes to scoring in the first five innings, putting up just 1.25 runs per contest. While Toronto manages just 1.86 runs per game in the first five when playing on the road.
With strong pitching and both teams struggling to come through in the clutch, bet on this one to be low scoring throughout and take the Under first-five innings as well.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120 at bet365)
Pick: Under 4.5 first five innings (-125 at bet365)
