The Toronto Blue Jays struck first in their intriguing interleague series with the Los Angeles Dodgers winning an exhilarating 6-3 game in extra innings on Monday night.
The Blue Jays will go for the series win when they hand the ball to veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt but they’ll be in tough against Dodgers lefty Julio Urias.
Can Toronto overcome the MLB odds and win a second straight game as road underdogs? Or will L.A. even the series?
I break down this MLB matchup and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay, in MLB picks and predictions Blue Jays vs. Dodgers.
Blue Jays vs Dodgers odds
Blue Jays vs Dodgers predictions
The Toronto Blue Jays got a huge two-run double from Daulton Varsho in the top of the 10th inning last night, propelling them to a 6-3 win. However, it was a tightly contested game through nine innings and I think we could see more of the same tonight.
The Blue Jays hand the ball to Chris Bassitt for Game 2. The reliable right-hander looks refreshed following the All-Star break and is coming off a solid performance against the Dodgers’ National League West rivals, the San Diego Padres. Bassitt shut out the Padres over six innings, allowing just four hits. It was the 13th time this season in which he has pitched at least six innings and surrendered two or fewer runs.
Bassitt’s season has had some highs and lows, and right now he’s on a high. The Blue Jays have won each of his last five starts where Bassitt is pitching to a 2.57 ERA and a 2.86 FIP. He’s also doing a good job of limiting hard contact, which is a must vs. this Dodgers team, holding opponents to a .659 OPS over that stretch.
Bassitt has also stepped up his performance against top competition. He’s held the likes of the Houston Astros, the Atlanta Braves, and the New York Yankees all scoreless this season.
Countering Bassitt is left-hander Julio Urias and to put it nicely 2023 has not gone to plan. Urias is pitching to a 5.02 ERA and is coming off one of the worst starts of his career, as the Baltimore Orioles tagged him for eight runs.
But this is still a guy who had a 2.63 ERA between 2019 and 2022. And he has shown flashes of that. One start previous he shut out the New York Mets on one hit over six innings back on July 14. He has also been much better at Dodger Stadium where he has a 2.15 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .179 batting average in six starts there.
On top of that, while Toronto also has a potent lineup, they tend to struggle more against southpaws. The Blue Jays rank 17th in OPS and 15th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers this season. They also rank 28th in OPS with runners in scoring position.
So, all things considered, I think the starting pitching will be the story early on tonight and am betting the Under first five inning.
My best bet: Under 5 first five innings (-113 at SPORTS INTERACTION)
Blue Jays vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Under 5.5 first five
Merrifield Over 0.5 stolen bases
Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
As always our same-game parlay starts with our best bet but in this instance, we’ll bump up the five-inning total to 5.5 and take the Under. But just because I like the matchups for the starters here doesn’t mean they’re going to be pitching perfect games.
From there, I’m adding a Whit Merrifield stolen base. The Blue Jays ultra utility man is in another groove, hitting .412 since the All-Star break. That means plenty of stolen base opportunities for the guy who leads the Jays with 20 steals, and no one has given up more stolen bases this season than the Dodgers.
Speaking of grooves, Freddie Freeman is hitting .517 with seven extra-base hits over his last seven games and lefties have done way more damage vs. Bassitt, getting to him for a .277 batting average and a .891 OPS. Add Over 1.5 total bases for a fun +1,400 payout.
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Blue Jays vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as roughly +135 road underdogs and have seen the early action, moving down to the +120 range a few hours before first pitch.
That is likely due to Urias’ ERA and the fact he is coming off a poor performance against another AL East opponent in the Orioles. But it is overlooking the fact his expected ERA is a whole run lower at 4.02, his WHIP is still a solid 1.17 and he has been much better at home.
While I like Bassitt to put on a solid performance tonight, he is certainly capable of a more volatile outing (he’s had a handful of outings go sideways on him) and this Dodgers lineup is a beast, ranking second in OPS and third in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching. So, in the -140 range, I think there is some value in the home team.
The total hit the board at 9 and it has held steady there. As with yesterday, I prefer the five-inning Under to the full game. Part of the reason for that is both teams could have more success against the opposing bullpens tonight.
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays have hit the game total Under in 29 of their last 48 games for +11.5 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Dodgers
Blue Jays vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 25, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Chris Bassitt (10-5, 3.92 ERA): It looks like the All-Star break did Bassitt some good. He's recorded two quality starts in a row, allowing two earned runs on 11 hits over his 12 innings of work.
Julio Urias (7-6, 5.02 ERA): It's not the season Urias envisioned and he is coming off one of the worst starts of his career, surrendering eight runs on eight hits last time out against the Orioles.
