The Toronto Blue Jays look to head into the postseason with some momentum as they face off against the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday night.
This is the final series of the regular season and with Toronto having already clinched the top AL Wild Card spot, it will host either the Mariners or Rays in the first round later this week. With neither club having much to play for, oddsmakers are setting this game as close to a pick'em with the O's installed as -115 home faves.
Here are my best free Blue Jays vs. Orioles MLB betting picks and predictions for October 4.
Editor's Note: Today's Blue Jays-Orioles game was rained out, with a doubleheader scheduled for tomorrow as a result.
Blue Jays vs Orioles best odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles picks and predictions
Nothing says a meaningless game at the end of the regular season than starting a pitcher like Mitch White who has a 9.47 ERA in his last six outings. To be fair, White has impressive analytics such as a 3.82 FIP with a hard-hit rate and barrel rate that rank among the top 25th percentile of all pitchers. But he simply allows way too much contact with an opponent batting average of .320 this year.
The Orioles have been streaky at the plate this season but have been productive lately, ranking seventh in the majors with an OPS of .741 while batting .251 over the last 15 days.
White seldom pitches deep into games but has still allowed at least five hits in eight of his last 10 starts. One of the only starts where he allowed fewer than five hits came against the Orioles last month but he gave up a whopping five runs in that outing before getting the hook midway through the third inning.
With nothing at stake for the Jays in this one, don't be surprised if they keep him in longer than usual to rest their more valuable arms for the postseason.
My best bet: Mitch White Over 4.5 hits allowed (+100 at bet365)
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Blue Jays vs Orioles moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays locked up a playoff spot last Thursday but haven't taken their foot off the pedal since then, winning four in a row. They took the first contest in this four-game series last night, beating the Orioles 5-1 to secure home-field advantage for the Wild Card round.
It wasn't long ago that the O's were surging up the standings and it looked like they could make the postseason, but seven losses in their last ten games have sealed their fate.
The Jays have been mashing and are second in the majors with an OPS of .760 with that number, surging to an MLB-best .815 over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, the Orioles lineup has plenty of pop but doesn't make contact quite as well and ranks just 17th with an OPS of .696.
Toronto will have the previously mentioned White on the mound, while Baltimore will respond with Mike Baumann. The righty has bounced between the bullpen and rotation this year with all three of his starts coming within the last month.
Baumann pitched to a 4.85 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP and an OBA of .321 in those three starts, with one of those outings coming against the Jays on September 5 when he allowed eight hits and three runs in five innings.
When it comes to the bullpens of both clubs, Toronto has the current edge there as well. Baltimore's relievers were locked in earlier this season, boasting an impressive 3.14 ERA until the All-Star break. However, their ERA has plummeted to 4.06 with their OBA surging to .260 since the break, while the Jays bullpen has posted 3.30 ERA with a .229 OBA over the same period of time.
The Blue Jays are 20-8 in their last 28 games at Camden Yards and are 7-2 in the last nine meetings overall.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Over/Under analysis
We already pointed out that both of these starters are subpar, and while Baumann doesn't have much of a sample size to go on, what we have seen isn't exactly promising. He has a hard-hit rate of 49% which is bad news against a Jays lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
The Orioles are a respectable 12th in the majors in hard-hit rate while ranking 10th in barrel rate. While all those numbers might make it seem like the Over 7.5 is the obvious play today, there are other factors to consider.
As hot as Toronto's lineup has been lately there's a good chance that they insert a few fringe player tonight. In addition, the weather could be messy in Baltimore again after last night's contest was halted by rain in the bottom of the eighth. There's a high chance of precipitation this evening along with 12 mph winds blowing towards the infield.
Blue Jays vs Orioles trend to know
The Blue Jays are 18-6 in their last 24 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 4, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, MASN |
Starting pitchers
Mitch White (1-6, 5.21 ERA): The 27-year-old looked sharp with the Dodgers this season but has struggled since being acquired by the Jays, pitching to a 1.72 WHIP with a .313 OBA in 39 innings with Toronto. In his previous start last week, he allowed five hits and walked three batters with three earned runs in 3 2-3 innings against the Yankees.
Mike Baumann (1-3, 4.35 ERA): Baumann pitched just 10 innings in his MLB debut season last year and had an ERA of just 9.90 with a WHIP of 1.90. While he has made huge strides this year the 27-year-old still has an ugly 1.45 WHIP with an OBA of .298 through 29 innings. In his previous outing last Thursday, he scattered six hits and allowed two runs in four innings against the Red Sox.
Blue Jays vs Orioles latest injuries
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Blue Jays vs Orioles weather
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