Tensions were high during Game 3 of this epic AL East series between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles.
Baltimore struck back with a 9-6 victory last night after dropping both games of Monday’s doubleheader. Now, the O’s will try to earn a series split but to do so they’ll have to get past one of the best and most intense starters in baseball, Alek Manoah.
It should come as no surprise that today’s best bet involves the Toronto All-Star starter, but will Manoah be able to lead the Jays to victory as road favorites?
Find out in my free best MLB picks and predictions for what should be a thrilling American League East battle between the Blue Jays and Orioles.
Blue Jays vs Orioles best odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles picks and predictions
You can just feel the postseason races heating up. The Blue Jays and Orioles got into a minor tussle during last night’s game, and you knew tonight’s starter Manoah would be right in the middle of it. Tonight, he takes the ball looking to extend the Jays’ 3.5-game lead over the O’s for the final Wild Card spot in the AL.
Manoah suffered a bit of a mid-season lull following the All-Star break, but the big right-hand has rebounded and found his good stuff leading into this matchup. Manoah has surrendered just two earned runs on 13 hits while striking out 22 batters over 20 1-3 innings of work.
That stretch of starts has lowered Manoah’s ERA to 2.48 and is now limiting opponents to a .211 batting average.
Now, Manoah knows his teammates need a big night out of him after playing three games in the past two days while last night’s stater Mitch White only recorded seven outs and taxed an already overused bullpen. There is no better person to be in this position than Manoah.
The right-hander is not only the Jays’ most fiery starter, but he is also as reliable as they come when it comes to working deep into ball games. Manoah averages 6.27 innings per start this season.
And while the Orioles have proven to be a scrappy bunch in the second half of the season, they still rank a mediocre 17th in batting average and 16th in OPS and wRC+ when facing right-handers this season.
At the end of last night’s game, Manoah just sat in the Blue Jays dugout and stoically watched the Orioles celebrate on the field. He’s ready and focused for this matchup and we’re backing him to pitch deep into this game.
Manoah has gone Over 18.5 outs in each of his last two starts and we’re getting plus money for him to do so once again. Sign me up.
My best bet: Alek Manoah Over 18.5 outs recorded (+108)
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Blue Jays vs Orioles betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as -150 home favorites with Manoah expected to toe the rubber against Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer. But in a surprise move, the O’s have reinstated Tyler Wells off the injured list and is now slated to start tonight.
Sportsbooks didn’t see much of a difference between Kremer and Wells as the Jays were still roughly -140, -145 road favorites when the odds reopened this morning.
Wells has not pitched since July 27 due to an oblique strain but had been pitching fairly well before the injury, owning a 3.90 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 20 starts. However, his final four starts prior to the injury saw a bit of a decline in his numbers.
Now, Wells may serve as a bit of an opener in this one with Kremer still being their primary pitcher due to the fact the Orioles' bullpen has been pretty taxed during this series. Kremer has pitched to a 3.22 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP this year.
With that uncertainty, combined with a tough matchup against Manoah and a Blue Jays lineup that is starting to fire on all cylinders once again, all of the sudden, this line makes all sorts of sense.
Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup hit the board at 7.5 and even with the pitching change by Baltimore, that’s where the number remains as of late Wednesday morning. Now, I don’t have a strong feeling about this total but if I had to lean one way, it would probably be towards the Over.
For starters, The Blue Jays lineup is starting to heat up again. Toronto is plating 5.33 runs per game over their last nine contests and while several Blue Jays are in a rhythm right now, there is arguably no one in baseball hotter than Bo Bichette.
The Blue Jays shortstop is a ridiculous 16-28 (.593) with five home runs over six games to start the month of September.
Even if Wells is just used as a pseudo-opener, he’ll likely still have some rust to knock off after not pitching in the Big Leagues for nearly six weeks. This is not a lineup you want to try to do that against.
Additionally, while Manoah has been great most of the season, the Orioles have given him a bit of trouble, getting to him for seven runs on 12 hits over his last 10 2-3 innings of work against him.
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
• Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MA
• Date: Wednesday, September 7, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, MASN
Starting pitchers
Alek Manoah (13-7, 2.49 ERA): It appears that Manoah has found his All-Star form over his last three starts, allowing just two earned runs over his last 20 1-3 innings. His strikeouts have also seen a tick-up, punching out 29 batters in his last 26 innings.
Tyler Wells (7-6, 3.90 ERA): This is Wells' first start since suffering an oblique strain in late July. Prior to the injury, Wells was going through a bit of a rough patch, pitching to a 7.11 ERA and a 5.59 FIP over his last four starts.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Blue Jays are 8-1 in their last nine road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles
