With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror, the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game series at Fenway Park tonight. AL East battles like this will be crucial to determining the playoff picture, with just two games separating these teams in the division standings.
Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox on Friday, July 22.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with the Jays installed as -120 faves with the Over/Under at 8.5. Early money has come in on Toronto, shifting the line slightly to -125, although you can get it at -120 at some books. Meanwhile, the total has moved up to 9.0.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions
Picks made on 7/22/2022 at 10:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Friday, July 22, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, NESN
Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (6-7, 2.87 ERA): Gausman joined the Jays after putting together his first All-Star campaign with the Giants last year. Although he has been a bit more up-and-down this season, he leads the majors with a FIP of 1.93. The right-hander also has a sparkling 1.71 ERA in his last four starts, which includes a dominant performance against Boston on June 27, where he fanned 10 batters through seven innings of shutout ball.
Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 3.34 ERA): The right-hander is putting up career-best numbers in ERA this season, while his WHIP (1.14) and OBA (.250) numbers are the second-best of his 11-year career. He's coming off a shaky outing against the Yankees, where he surrendered six hits and three runs while walking two before getting the hook midway through the fifth inning.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Blue Jays are 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these AL East foes. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Blue Jays vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
While it will take a small miracle for either of these clubs to catch the Yankees, the Jays are just 1.5 games behind the Rays for second place in the AL East, and the Red Sox are two games behind Toronto.
Toronto entered the All-Star break having won five of its last six games, while the Red Sox have gone just 6-14 in their previous 20 contests.
The Red Sox will send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound today. While Eovaldi has an impressive 3.34 ERA this season, his expected ERA sits at just 4.31, while his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate rank among the Bottom 10% of pitchers. That's bad news against a Jays lineup that leads the majors in both exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk leading the way, the Jays are third in the majors with an OPS of .759 and have bumped that up to .785 over the last 30 days.
The Red Sox have some dangerous sluggers of their own but are eighth in the majors with an OPS of .728, and that number has dipped to .716 over the last 30 days. They should have a tough time against Toronto starter Kevin Gausman, as he's looked sharp lately and has dominated Boston this year — allowing just one earned run and striking out 27 in 21 innings over three starts.
The Jays have the deeper lineup and better starting pitcher tonight. That, combined with the recent play of both teams, has me backing the slim road faves.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-120 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Both of these teams can mash, but with how solid both starters have been lately, I'm going against the line movement and leaning towards the Under today.
Even though Eovaldi is coming off a rough outing against the Yankees, he has still pitched to a 2.03 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last five starts. He also limited the Jays to three runs across 11 2-3 innings in a pair of starts against them back in April.
Gausman has a fairly high OBA at .276 but has been doing a terrific job at preventing extra-base hits. Opposing batters have a slugging percentage of just .373 against him, and he has surrendered just three homers in 94 innings this year.
With the Under going 7-1 in Toronto's last eight trips to Boston, I'm expecting that trend to continue.
Prediction: Under 9 (-112 at SIA)
Best bet
While these clubs are pretty close to each other in the standings, there are few reasons besides home-field advantage to consider the Red Sox today. The Jays have the superior starting pitcher and the better lineup from top-to-bottom.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been struggling — especially against AL East foes against whom they are just 12-26 on the year. In particular, they have played awful against the Jays, losing in seven of the last nine meetings.
Pick: Blue Jays moneyline (-120 at bet365)
