Blue Jays vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Jansen Aims to Keep Jays Hot

The Toronto Blue Jays scored the most runs in franchise history last night in a 28-5 rout of the Boston Red Sox. It was a statement game coming out of the All-Star break, and now the -145 visiting favorites will send legit Cy Young odds contender Alek Manoah to the mound.

Running up the score can make for a tougher opponent the following day, but the Jays seemed poised in their postgame remarks and Danny Jansen could be in for another big day at the dish. Does Boston save face Saturday afternoon? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox on July 23.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds

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The Blue Jays opened as -125 road favorites, but after the beatdown last night, gained some steam and moved to -145 with a total of 9.5 thanks to very hitter-friendly conditions at Fenway Park. Toronto closed as -120 favorites last night with a total of 9.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions

• Prediction: Blue Jays (-140)
• Prediction: Over 9.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Jansen Over 1.5 total bases (+150)

Picks made on 7/23/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Saturday, July 23, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, NESN

Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Alek Manoah (10-4, 2.28 ERA): Manoah is currently the No. 6 betting favorite for the American League Cy Young at +1,400. He’s coming off an All-Star appearance where he struck out three of the four batters he faced and comes in not having allowed more than six hits in nine straight starts. His current 2.28 ERA is as high as it has been all season while opponents are slashing just .205/.263/.318. He’s seen the Red Sox twice this season and has allowed just three earned runs over 14 innings with 13 punchouts to just two walks. 

Kutter Crawford (2-2, 4.50 ERA): Rookie right-hander Kutter Crawford will make his fifth start of the season and sixth in the big leagues this afternoon. He has looked solid in his recent two starts and if manager Alex Cora hadn't sent him out in the seventh inning to give up three straight hits in his last outing, his numbers would look even better. Ultimately, this is still a 16th-round draft pick who has posted an ERA north of 5.00 in back-to-back seasons in Triple-A. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 8-0 in the Red Sox’s last eight games on grass. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox

Blue Jays vs Red Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Betting the Toronto moneyline after such a massive win the previous night is a tough thing for a bettor to do. The Jays certainly ran up the score on the Red Sox and sometimes that doesn’t sit well with the opposition.

The Jays did seem composed following the win, as multiple players were looking towards today’s game following the historic win. “Now we’re done with it,” catcher Danny Jansen told the media following the victory while Lourdes Gurriel added through an interpreter, “One of the things we’re going to try to do is erase what happened today and get it tomorrow, too.”

The Toronto players may be composed and have their best pitcher on the mound in Manoah, but it’s tough to quantify the motivating factor for the Red Sox after getting embarrassed at home less than 24 hours ago.

Another reason I'd likely stay away from a side here is that we’ve missed the boat on the value with Manoah and the Jays, as the price has moved from -120 to -145. That 25-point movement is a lot for a road team facing the Red Sox who sit above .500 on the season and play winning-record teams at roughly the same rate.  

Avoiding a side based mainly on subjective motivation might seem odd, but I see it in every sport. Boston will come out today and put in a better effort, and I’d suggest hitting the Jays’ team total Over 4.5 (-135) at roughly the same price as the Toronto bats vs. Kutter Crawford is the best advantage the favorites have.

Do I think the Jays will win? Yes. Am I paying -140 with better markets at better prices available? No.

Prediction: Blue Jays (-140 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

With Fenway Park playing as the best hitters’ park in baseball today, the total has moved from 9 yesterday to 9.5 today and leans slightly to the Under. To me, this might not be enough of an upgrade considering the weather, both bullpens, and Crawford’s fly-ball tendencies. These factors could help hang some crooked numbers today.

Park conditions are factored into the lines but there are sometimes edges in weather, especially when we are seeing temperatures in the high-90s and some wind blowing out to center field. Ballpark Pal has today’s settings as a +4% upgrade on runs and +15% upgrade on home runs compared to average conditions at the park. 

Home run conditions are prime and with Crawford being an extreme fly-ball pitcher (38%), the Jays and the long ball could keep cruising today after launching four out of the park yesterday.

Total Team Effort:

???? All 9 of our starters had at least 2 hits and 2 runs last night - just the 2nd team since 1900 to do so! pic.twitter.com/9I9j7uQqTR

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) July 23, 2022

Boston scored all of its runs yesterday via the long ball, as well, thanks to similar hitting conditions. Getting to Manoah has proven difficult for this lineup, but if Boston can see a Blue Jay bullpen that sits in the bottom-third in ERA for nine or more outs, they can plate some runs as well. Toronto's best arms from the pen haven’t seen a live game since Sunday.

It’s stinking hot and so are the Jays’ bats after scoring 28 runs on 29 hits yesterday. Today’s pitching matchup is even more advantageous for the visitors and Boston showed yesterday that it can use park conditions in its favor as well. These are also the Top 2 teams in AL batting average.

Prediction: Over 9.5 (-105 at bet365)

Best bet

Although I think the Jays' team total Over 4.5 (-135) is a great play and one I’d prefer over the Jays ML at -140, Danny Jansen’s swing, park conditions, and matchup are a trifecta of prop beauty that bettors can take advantage of this afternoon. 

Jansen launched two long balls in yesterday’s rout and although those results don’t necessarily have any impact on today's performance, the catcher has the best pull rate on his flyballs in baseball (41%) and will be hitting towards the shortest left-field fence there is on the circuit. 

Jano has SIX RBI tonight ???? pic.twitter.com/xMGXrmOlWE

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) July 23, 2022

Both of Jansen’s home runs yesterday carried over the Green Monster in left field, and today he’ll face Crawford, who has a flyball rate nearly 50% higher than the league average. He has a 1.25 HR/9 over a brief 36 big-league innings this season while his Minor League numbers also have a pattern of home run tendencies.

FanDuel has Jansen’s Over 1.5 total bases at +150, whereas other books are as short as +110. Jansen actually leads the Jays in SLG% by a fair margin but with limited at-bats thanks to missing time due to an injury. He’s back, is raking, and conditions are optimal for more bases today. 

Danny Jansen prop pick: Over 1.5 total bases (+150 at FanDuel)

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