The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will wrap up their three-game series Sunday afternoon.
The data is small, but the return from the All-Star break has seen the Jays look closer to the team we've expected, having won seven of 10 including a 28-run explosion on Friday. Boston is looking more and more like a seller each day, with just two wins in its last 10 games — the worst stretch of any AL East team over that span.
Who will take the final game of this series? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Sunday, July 24.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Toronto opened up a -130 Moneyline favorite today. Since then, they've been bet down to around -150, with the Red Sox returning at +140.The total opened up at 11 and has remained there.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions
- Prediction: Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Blue Jays F5 TT Over 2.5 (-140)
- Best bet: Ross Striping to record a win (+160)
Picks made on 7/24/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Sunday, July 24, 2022
• First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, NESN
Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ross Stripling (5-3, 3.03 ERA): Each time I've written about Stripling, I've talked about how he's one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. That hasn't changed and while his 1.59 ERA in June was unsustainable, he's followed it up nicely. In July, Stripling pitched just over 16 innings and gave up five runs. His last start was one of the best of the season against the Philadelphia Phillies when he gave up zero earned runs and just two hits. Stripling uses three pitches quite effectively between the fastball, changeup, and slider. His slider has been his best pitch this season and has posted a -2 run value. While none of his peripherals blow you away, Stripling produces ground-balls at an above-average rate and forces batters to chase at an elite rate.
Brayan Bello (0-1, 9.00 ERA): We don't have a ton of data on Bello at the major league level. He's made two starts for just a total of eight innings in his career so far and both of them were pretty rough. He gave up four earned runs in his first start against the Tampa Bay Rays and followed that up with another four-inning appearance, this time giving up five earned runs to, once again, the Rays. Bello doesn't have a pitch he favors much yet and has a relatively equal distribution of four pitches: sinker, changeup, slider, and 4-seam fastball. The fastball has some good velocity on it but was hit the hardest in both of his appearances.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Blue Jays are 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Blue Jays vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This one seems pretty straightforward. It's a tale of two teams trending in opposite directions. As such, I'll be backing the Blue Jays today.
Stripling is one of my favorite pitchers to back, not because he's overly dominant but because he's relatively consistent. He rarely has a blow-up game on the mound and you can typically count on him to give his team a chance to win.
He's only given up more than three runs once this season, which came back in May. Today, he gets a Boston offense that has been sputtering and also has the seventh-highest Chase Rate in baseball and doesn't match that with an impressive Chase Contact Rate. That plays directly into Stripling's hands with the key to his success as a pitcher being getting teams to chase, and because of that, he should have some success today in this matchup.
On the flip side, the one thing that seems evident with Bello is he's going to give up hard contact. He hasn't played enough innings of baseball to rank his hard-hit rate properly, but if we were, you'd see it's near the bottom of baseball. While he should have some nice regression at some point, that's unlikely to come against Toronto. As I've written previously, nobody hits the ball harder than the Blue Jays, and unfortunately for Bello, he's getting that offense amid a hot run. All signs point to Toronto early and often today.
Today, I see the most significant edge in the first five innings market. The pitching matchup is decisive, and taking Toronto on the run line here is the best way to capitalize on that.
Prediction: Blue Jays first five innings -0.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
I want to steer clear of the Red Sox right now entirely, so I'll look to avoid them in this market, but there's plenty of value on the Over of Toronto's team total. So let's once again attack Bello here.
This isn't very complex. Bello is a young pitcher finding his way in the majors and consequently going through growing pains. His biggest issue right now is a hard-hit rate of around 41%. That's not a surprise, given he's a high-velocity pitcher who leans on his fastball to get outs.
Eventually, he'll adjust, and things will start to even out, but that adjustment isn't going to come today, though. Toronto ranks first in hard-hit rate and first in exit velocity. That makes for a nightmare matchup. In addition to that, they hit the 4-seam fastball quite well, the pitch most favored by Bello.
Toronto will have four players in their lineup today that have a run-value of over eight against the fastball. That's four players that are classified as "elite" fastball hitters.
This is another market where I'm confidently backing the Blue Jays. The offense is hot, which is simply a bonus in a terrific matchup for their hitters. My projections have calculated nearly a 15% edge here.
Prediction: Blue Jays first five innings team total Over 2.5 (-140 at DraftKings)
Best bet
I like many angles in this game, but my best bet comes with a play on Toronto's starting pitcher Ross Stripling.
I've outlined above why I feel confident backing Toronto early in the game, so I'll take that a step further. As previously noted, Stripling gets a favorable matchup today because of the Red Sox chase rate.
There's a reason why he recorded a season-high seven strikeouts in his previous outing against them, and while that does make his strikeout prop an appealing play, I'm looking at him to record a win at a much better number.
Stripling has gone five innings or more in four of his last five starts. That, combined with the matchup, along with aptness to rarely have a blow-up outing, all make this an appealing play. When you factor in the price, it's more than enough to be my best bet.
Pick: Ross Stripling to record a win (+160 at DraftKings)
