Blue Jays vs Royals Predictions, Picks, Odds: Toronto Takes Advantage of Weak K.C. Lineup

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Kansas City Royals will wrap up a four-game set this afternoon in a game that has seen a lot of money come in on the Jays and the Under. 

Weather is likely to continue to stifle the bats. With the Royals boasting the worst offense in baseball and facing an elite pitcher in Kevin Gausman, can we expect another poor offensive performance from the home team in an afternoon get-away game? 

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Royals on Thursday, April 6.

Blue Jays vs Royals odds

Blue Jays vs Royals predictions

The Kansas City Royals offense is currently the worst offense in all of baseball. It’s hitting just .155 across six games and ranks dead last in wRC+ and wOBA. If it wasn’t for a matchup vs. a hittable Jose Berrios, the number could be looking even worse. The Royals have scored one or fewer runs in four of their six games, and have been shut out in three of those.

That’s good news for Kevin Gausman, who was solid in his opening start allowing zero earned runs, and could've had better numbers but for some defensive issues behind him. He threw 71% of his pitches for strikes, and can manage the colder weather better than Alek Manoah. Gausman is a fastball-heavy hurler, and threw it 63% of the time in his first start. Manoah was not at his best last night, and K.C. still managed just one hit off of the starter. 

The Royals will also have to earn their baserunners, as Gausman’s command is elite. He finished in the Top 6% in walk rate last season. Danny Jansen is a neutral catcher in terms of framing and strike rate, but Gausman will get a boost if Alejandro Kirk catches, as he is one of the best framing catchers in baseball. Projected home-plate umpire Manny Gonzalez is a neutral umpire.

The Jays’ bullpen is all ready to roll, but Gausman could easily go seven innings today vs. this weak offense.

Pinnacle is still hanging a Kansas City team total of 3.5, but I’d still take the Under on a 3 if that’s all that's available to you. The Royals will likely have a weaker lineup with the afternoon setting, the cold weather is favoring the Under, and this is a get-away game for both clubs who are each traveling to warmer weather on the West Coast following this series.

I like the Under 8.5 here, but the K.C. team total Under 3.5 is showing more value.

My best bet: Royals team total Under 3.5 (-124 at Pinnacle)

Blue Jays vs Royals moneyline analysis

Looking at the moneyline so far in this series, Toronto closed as a +120 dog in the series opener — a 9-5 loss in a pitching matchup of Jose Berrios vs. Brady Singer — then were -165 favorites in the second game, a 4-1 win in a pitching matchup of Yusei Kikuchi vs. Kris Bubic. Last night, the Jays won 3-0 as -180 favorites with Alek Monaoh facing Zack Greinke.

The Jays got smashed on the overnight, as they opened at -175 and took a ton of money, and currently sit at -210. It’s a short price for a road favorite on a getaway day, but the pitching matchup of Kevin Gausman vs. Jordan Lyles is certainly driving the market movement.

Gausman might not be throwing his splitter as much today thanks to the low-50s temperatures, but he should have plenty of success with his fastball that he threw 50% of the time a season ago and 63% of the time in his last start. That fastball sinks more than the average MLB fastball, and his horizontal movement on it is also elite. It’s not a great matchup for a struggling K.C. offense.

On the season, the Royals are hitting a league-worst .155 and sit in the basement in wOBA and wRC+. Excluding the game vs. Jose Berrios, K.C. has scored five runs over the other five games, and has been shut out in three of them. Starting pitchers Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, and Alek Manoah have held this offense to one earned run over 22.1 innings. 

Jordan Lyles will have to be nearly perfect today, and with a dip in velocity this season, it's a little concerning. He has a 2.7-mph drop in velocity with his fastball over the last two seasons, meaning the Jays’ offense should be able to string some hits together in the chilly weather that will likely limit home runs again today.

The Jays have just three home runs on the season, but likely could have had an extra two more last night, as the cavernous Kauffman Stadium coupled with April weather killed any ball hit in the air. 

Toronto is getting on base at a great clip (.363 OBP) to start the year, and is hitting .292 as a team, which is the second-best mark in baseball. This offense can overcome the hitting conditions and keep the line moving vs. a pitcher with speed issues. 

Just like yesterday though, the price is too steep here at -210. The -1.5 run line at -125 is a little enticing, as I don’t see the Royals generating much offense, but I prefer the K.C. team total Under 3.5 at -125 than the Jays on the run line at the same price. 

Blue Jays vs Royals Over/Under analysis

Weather is likely to play a big factor in today’s total again, as temperatures are expected in the low 50s with slighter crosswinds than last night. Combined with a low-HR park in Kauffman Stadium and Gausman likely to have his way with this K.C. offense, I’m certainly interested in today’s Under.

Last night’s Under 8.5 was a gift that was aided by a cold setting with solid winds that saved a few runs. That total opened at 9, and early bettors were keen to pile on the Under. The same thing happened last night, as today’s total somehow opened at 9 and got smashed to the Under on the overnight.

Bettors woke up to a total of 8 in some places, but those with the ability to shop around can still find plenty of 8.5s as of this morning. 

The Under 8.5 is a play for me. Kansas City is currently the worst offense in baseball and has to face a possible Cy Young candidate in Gausman. We could also see weaker lineups on both sides with the afternoon game, as both teams could get the bench players a start.

Toronto has hit the ball well out of the gates, but has launched just three home runs over six games. Combined, the Royals and Jays have just seven longballs on the season. 

Fifty-degree temperatures are certainly in the Under’s favor as well as Kauffman Stadium, which also suppresses home runs.

Lyles’ velocity issues do worry me, but I don’t project the K.C. offense doing much today vs. Gausman. The Royals' bullpen could save the day even if Lyles gets shelled. The K.C. starter did manage to silence some decent Minnesota bats in his opener despite the drop in velocity, and the low temps could certainly help him this afternoon as well.

I’d take this Under 8.5 at Pinnacle (-115), and expect this total to hit 8 across the board, especially if both teams put out weaker lineups.  

Blue Jays vs Royals game info

Blue Jays vs Royals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kevin Gausman (0-1, 0.00 ERA): Gausman wasn’t at his best in his opening start, but still went six innings and gave up zero earned runs (three runs did score). He gave up eight hits but also struck out seven over 90 pitches. The splitter pitcher didn’t get a lot of groundballs last year (41%) but missed a lot of bats with a 28.3% strikeout rate. Batters did hit .270 off of him a season ago, but he keeps it in the park, allowing just 15 homers last year in 170-plus innings.

Jordan Lyles (0-1, 1.69 ERA): Lyles will make his second start of the campaign and took the loss in his opening start despite 5.1 innings of decent pitching — five hits, one earned run, and a 2/2 K/BB ratio. The alarming thing for the right-hander is a dip in velocity. Lyles had a 1.2 mph drop in velocity on his four-seamer last year, and this season he’s seen an additional 1.5 mph drop. That's a concern here, especially considering he threw his fastball 41% of the time in his first start.

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The Under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Royals

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