Thanks to some rain, the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox will now play a doubleheader today.
The Jays opened this series with a win thanks to some late-game heroics from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and continued their strong performances against non-American League East opponents.
Today, they’ll go for the series win when they hand the ball to Jose Berrios for Game 1 of the doubleheader. The right-hander has once again become a (much-needed) reliable arm in the Blue Jays rotation, but will he be able to cool off the white-hot Luis Robert Jr.?
The White Sox counter Berrios with a veteran right-hander of their own in Lance Lynn. But things have not gone smoothly for Lynn this season (like, at all), meaning Toronto is a slight road favorite in the MLB odds.
I break down this AL matchup and bring you my best bet, plus a juicy same-game parlay in our MLB picks and predictions for the first leg of Blue Jays vs. White Sox on July 6.
Blue Jays vs White Sox odds
Blue Jays vs White Sox predictions
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. belted his fourth home run in his last 10 games in the top of the eighth inning off Joe Kelly, and Jordan Romano came in to close out the 4-3 victory for Toronto in Tuesday night’s series opener. The win improved the Blue Jays' record to 39-20 against non-American League East opponents, and they’ll be favorites to improve on that record in today's doubleheader vs. the White Sox.
A big reason for that is because the Pale Hose are handing the ball to Lance Lynn in Game 1. The veteran right-hander is having a rough go of things in the first half of the season. Lynn is pitching to a 4.77 expected ERA while surrendering a .254 expected batting average and a .456 expected slugging percentage to opponents this season, the latter of which ranks in the 21st percentile. It’s been even worse lately.
Lynn’s ERA balloons to 7.71 while giving up a .939 OPS over his last six starts, and tonight’s matchup against the Blue Jays isn’t exactly an easy one. Despite Toronto’s struggles to consistently cash in base runners, their numbers against right-handers overall are solid. The Jays rank fifth in batting average, eighth in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ vs righties this season.
Countering Lynn is Jose Berrios. The right-hander hasn’t been outstanding, but at the very least he’s a reliable arm in the Jays rotation. Berrios has a 3.02 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .231 batting average over his last 14 starts, recording nine quality starts over that span.
He got hurt by the long ball in his last start against the Boston Red Sox, but as long as he doesn’t mess around with Luis Robert Jr., who is hitting nukes on the regular, he’ll have a chance to be effective.
That’s because the White Sox have not had much success vs. right-handed pitchers. As a team, Chicago ranks 22nd in batting average, 28th in OPS, and 25th in wRC+ when facing righties this season.
In the end, this handicap is very similar to Tuesday's opener. Toronto has a slight edge in starters and bullpen, and a clear edge when it comes to the consistency of the respective lineups. The Blue Jays have value on the moneyline at this price once again.
My best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-128 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs White Sox same-game parlay
Blue Jays ML
Berrios Over 4.5 strikeouts
Lynn Over 2.5 earned runs
Lynn Under 18.5 outs
Lynn Over 6.5 strikeouts
Apologies, but I went a little crazy with today’s same-game parlay where pitching, good and bad, will be tonight’s theme. It of course starts with the Blue Jays and Jose Berrios on the moneyline.
We’ll stick with Berrios in the next leg by adding Over 4.5 strikeouts. Berrios has had some value in the strikeout market recently with an improved K-rate of 24.4% over his last eight starts and the amount of length he gives per start. The White Sox also have the 11th-highest strikeout rate when facing righties.
Now, let’s get spicy by adding a hat trick of plays for Lynn. First, the Over 2.5 earned runs seems like a no-brainer, considering how the Jays handle righties and the fact he has allowed three or more earned runs in 13 of his last 16 starts.
The other number that sticks out to me is his outs recorded prop, sitting at 18.5. Lynn has gone Over that in just four of 17 starts this season. And, as noted, the Jays aren’t a good matchup for him.
But we can throw Lynn a bone in the final leg. The one thing he still does well is strike out batters. His 26.9% K-rate is in the 73rd percentile. So, let’s add Over 6.5 strikeouts. He’s gone Over that number in eight of his last 15 starts, including the last three in a row. This 5-legger has a crazy +1,800 return.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Blue Jays vs White Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
After Wednesday's matchup got rained out Game 1 of the doubleheader reopened in the -125 range which is where it was sitting when it came off the board last night. The White Sox could see a little action once again but I don't expect the line to move too much and as noted above, I like the Blue Jays in this up to -130.
Aside from the argument in my best bet, I also like Toronto’s edge when it comes to the bullpens. Blue Jays relievers rank sixth in xFIP and fifth in strikeouts per nine innings, while the White Sox rank 17th and 12th, respectively, in those categories and are once again without Liam Hendricks.
When it comes to the total, that is back on the board at an even 9, and that’s where it sits as of Thursday morning. That number feels about right, so keep an eye on it. At 8.5 I’d have a slight lean to the Over, but at 9.5 I’d look at the Under.
Bet with one of Canada’s best
Looking to bet on some Jays action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors.
Trend to know
The Blue Jays are 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. American League Central opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. White Sox
Blue Jays vs White Sox game info
| Location: | Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Thursday, July 6, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 5:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NBCS-Chicago |
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.74 ERA): Berrios has put up a lot of good innings for the Jays this season. The right-hander has pitched into the sixth in 13 of his last 14 starts and is limiting opponents to a .213 batting average over that stretch.
Lance Lynn (5-8, 6.47 ERA): The one thing that has been consistent about Lynn this season is the runs. It's consistently been a lot of them. The right-hander has surrendered three or more runs in 13 of his 17 starts.
