The Toronto Blue Jays will are coming off a Canada Day weekend that felt like a fireworks show gone bad. Their struggles against the American League East continued as they were swept away at home by the Boston Red Sox.
Tonight, the Jays will try to put that behind them and get those sparks flying in the right direction when they head to the Windy City to open a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox.
Game 1 of this series is an interesting one with two veteran right-handers featured as Chris Bassitt toes the rubber against Lucas Giolito. The Blue Jays are slight favorites for this Independence Day showdown, but is there value in the home underdog?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay in MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. White Sox.
Looking for today's preview? Check out our Blue Jays vs. White Sox picks for Wednesday, July 5.
Blue Jays vs White Sox odds
Blue Jays vs White Sox predictions
The Toronto Blue Jays are a dumpster fire against the American League East this season. They are 7-20 in divisional matchups this year. But hey, they look great against everyone else! Toronto is 38-20 (a .655 winning percentage) against teams outside its division. Tonight's opponent, the Chicago White Sox, resides in the AL Central, the worst division in baseball.
Toronto hands the ball to veteran Chris Bassitt. The right-hander's first season in Toronto has certainly been a roller coaster as Bassitt got rocked in his first start of the season, surrendering nine runs on 10 hits before responding with a 2.40 ERA while limiting opponents to a .173 batting average over his next 12 starts.
Then he hit a bit of a slump: A three-game stretch where his ERA was an unsightly 11.57 and opponents were hitting over .400 against him. But he bounced back again, shutting out the San Francisco Giants over six innings on just three hits while setting a career-high with 12 strikeouts.
Despite the ups and downs,Bassitt has generally been a reliable pitcher and he should be able to take advantage of a struggling White Sox team.
The Pale Hose have not been good. A 37-49 record in the Central might be comparable to what the Oakland A’s going through. Speaking of that, the White Sox are coming off a series loss to those lowly A’s and have looked, well, ghostly pale at the plate this season, particularly against right-handers. Chicago ranks 27th in OPS and 25th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season.
If Chicago wants a chance to win this game, it'll need a strong performance from starter Lucas Giolito. It has also been an up-and-down year for the White Sox’s right-hander, who owns a 4.19 expected ERA, but he is coming off a solid month of June where he pitched to a 2.32 ERA and struck out 11.3 batters per nine innings.
However, Giolito’s matchup against the Blue Jays could be a little more daunting. Despite Toronto’s noted struggles to hit with runners in scoring position, overall it's the more consistent of these teams when it comes to hitting against righties, ranking seventh in OPS and fifth in wRC+.
Toronto has an edge when it comes to the bullpens, too. Blue Jays relievers rank sixth in xFIP and fifth in strikeouts per nine innings, while the White Sox rank 17th and 12th in those categories.
As long as this is not an opponent from the AL East, thanks to the more consistent offense against right-handers, there is some value in the Blue Jays in the -120 range.
My best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-120 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs White Sox same-game parlay
Blue Jays moneyline (-115)
George Springer Over 1.5 total base (-105)
Lucas Giolito Under 17.5 outs recorded (+120)
For this same-game parlay, carry on the theme of the Blue Jays having some success in the Windy City. So, of course, we’ll start by throwing the Blue Jays on the moneyline on the ticket.
Next up, let’s add George Springer to go Over 1.5 total bases. I have this play in my MLB player props article today as well. Head over there for a full breakdown but basically, Springer has been a great leadoff man since the middle of May. He has a .321 batting average in his last 41 starts and is 3-for-9 with two doubles in his career vs. Gioltio.
Speaking of Giolito, let’s close this SGP out by taking the Under on his outs-recorded prop. Giolito would need to complete six innings for the Over to cash, and while he has generally been a good innings eater for the White Sox, he has been allowing a lot of hits lately. Specifically, he's allowed six or more in six of his last nine starts. That means more at-bats and more pitches.
The Jays have the type of offense that can cause Giolito problems. A 5 2/3 inning start is very much on the table and adding Under 17.5 outs brings this SPG to a +500 payout.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Blue Jays vs White Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this American League matchup as about -120 road favorites and that’s approximately where the line remains as of Tuesday afternoon. I like Toronto up to -125 in this spot.
When it comes to the total, that hit the board at an even 9 and has been bet down to 8.5. If you could find a 9 still out there, I would have a slight lean toward the Under.
Bassitt has proven to generally be effective this season, limiting opponents to a .225 batting average, and as noted, the White Sox are struggling to find consistency vs. right-handers. Meanwhile, Giolito is clearly in a groove, allowing just eight earned runs over five starts last month and the Blue Jays do have issues with runners in scoring position.
So, that being said, I don’t hate the Under 4.5 in the first five innings.
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays are 11-4 in their last 15 games vs. American League Central opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. White Sox
Blue Jays vs White Sox game info
| Location: | Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NBCS-Chicago |
Starting pitchers
Chris Bassitt (8-5, 4.06 ERA): A few bad blowups aside, the Blue Jays have to be happy with their investment in Bassitt. The right-hander has 11 starts of at least six innings and less than two earned runs allowed.
Lucas Giolito (6-5, 3.53 ERA): Giolito has been one of the bright spots for the White Sox this season and has been happy to see the strikeouts return. The right-hander has racked up seven or more Ks in four of his last five starts.
