The Toronto Blue Jays will need a better output from their bullpen and must clean up their mistakes in the field if they want to be a true contender for the American League pennant this season.
That was brutally clear in this past week’s two-game series loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. Here’s hoping they used the off day to refocus, because if they didn’t, the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves will have a field day as they open a three-game set in Toronto on Friday night.
The Jays will need their "A-game" in the opener as they’ll dig in against Atlanta’s rising superstar starter Spencer Strider. Toronto counters with the reliable Chris Bassitt. Does that mean there is value in the Jays as underdogs, or will the Braves prove too much?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in our MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Blue Jays on May 12.
Braves vs Blue Jays odds
Braves vs Blue Jays predictions
The Blue Jays are coming off a gut-punch of a loss on Thursday. They held a 1-0 lead heading into the ninth inning, but closer Jordan Romano couldn’t finish it off, allowing the tying run to score. Then in the 10th, Bo Bichette air-mailed a tailor-made double-play ball, allowing the Phillies to score the winning run.
But the Jays will have to put that behind them quickly as they welcome a very good Atlanta Braves team to town. The Braves will hand the ball to one of the best young starters in baseball in Spencer Strider.
Strider looks like he could lead the next generation of dominant starters. The right-hander has a fastball that averages 97 miles per hour, and mixed with a wipeout slider, he’s a true strikeout artist. The numbers back all that up.
Strider is pitching to a 2.62 expected ERA, and is limiting opponents to a .181 expected batting average. And his strikeout rate is a ridiculous 42.1% — not shockingly, in the 99th percentile in the MLB.
Now, the Blue Jays lineup is clearly one of the tougher in baseball to navigate, but this week we saw two right-handers in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler effectively shutting them down in two straight games.
The Blue Jays counter Strider with the reliable Chris Bassitt. The right-hander has bounced back in a big way following a terrible debut with his new team in which he allowed nine runs on 10 hits in just 3 1/3 innings of work. In six starts since then, he has pitched to a 2.45 ERA and limited opponents to a .152 batting average.
Bassitt also made three starts against the Braves last season as a member of the New York Mets. The first two went very well, where he allowed four runs on 11 hits while striking out 14 over 13 innings. The last didn’t go as well, lasting just 2 2/3 frames after allowing four runs on three hits and three walks, but that was late in the season when the Mets had already clinched a postseason berth.
The Braves also have a dangerous lineup when everything is clicking, but at the moment they rank a middling 17th in batting average, ninth in OPS, and 12th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.
I’m betting pitching will be the story early on, and I'm taking the Under on the five-inning total.
My best bet: Under 4.5 first five innings (-105 at SIA)
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Braves vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as +130 home underdogs, and with the Braves seeing the early betting action, have moved to +135. I get it, Spencer Strider is great. But my feeling is this line is undervaluing the home team a little bit.
It’s not like Toronto is some sort of scrub team. This is a team with AL Pennant aspirations who are sending a competent starter to the mound in Bassitt. Yes, Strider is clearly the better starter in this matchup, but not enough to equate this line.
That’s partly because while Strider has been dominant, his high number of strikeouts causes him to rack up pitches quickly, to the point where he has lasted just five innings in four of his seven starts. Then he hands the ball over to a Braves bullpen, which like the Blue Jays', has been inconsistent this season. The Braves' pen ranks 14th in ERA and opponent batting average.
If the Jays can get Strider out of the game relatively early, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. & Co. will have an opportunity to produce some runs later in this ball game.
What’s holding me back from a solid play here are Bassitt’s issues with walks, and the Jays' own bullpen problems. That said, I think there is more value in the Jays at +135 than the Braves at -155.
Braves vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis
Since I’m on the Under 4.5 for the five-inning total, standard thinking would have me leaning toward the Under 8.5 as well. But not so fast. While I can see this game being along the lines of 3-1 through five innings, I would not be shocked if there was an explosion of runs in the second half.
As noted, Strider doesn’t tend to pitch deep into ball games, and this is a talented Toronto lineup that plates 4.93 runs per game and ranks eighth in wRC+ this season.
Meanwhile, Bassitt has given up a few home runs this season, and if he doesn’t control the walks, a bomb against the Braves — who rank third in home runs per nine innings — could be costly. And the Jays relievers rank 20th in ERA and 16th in opponent average. So, no play on the full-game total for me.
Braves vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, May 12, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSE, SNET-1 |
Starting pitchers
Spencer Strider (4-0, 2.70 ERA): Strider is the real deal. With his dynamic fastball and devastating slider, the right-hander looks like a young Jacob deGrom. He has recorded at least nine strikeouts in six of his first seven starts.
Chris Bassitt (4-2, 4.28 ERA): Bassitt has bounced back from a horrendous first start of the season. Since allowing nine runs on 10 hits on April 2, the right-hander has allowed just 10 runs on 19 hits over his last six starts combined.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the Braves' last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter and 7-0-1 in the Blue Jays' last eight home games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Blue Jays
