The Brewers made a splash last night by reportedly acquiring Frankie Montas from the Reds, but the move is not official as of Tuesday morning, so he may not make his Milwaukee debut in this spot.
The Braves are trotting out Bryce Elder, whose results have been lacking all year long. Find out how my Braves vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks for July 30 plan to take advantage of this.
Braves vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
William Contreras Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras looks like a matchup nightmare for Atlanta Braves starter Bryce Elder on Tuesday night.
Elder leans primarily on a sinker and slider, throwing one or the other 73.1% of the time. Contreras will gladly take a steady diet of sinkers based on his .492 xSLG vs. that pitch. Contreras also has a solid .426 xSLG vs. sliders this year.
The overall numbers don't auger well for Elder either. He's in the 23rd percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, K-rate, and hard-hit rate. Contreras should be able to square him up based on his 90th percentile rank in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He's also 63rd percentile or better in K-rate and xBA.
Additionally, Contreras is a better hitter at home (.806 OPS vs. a .772 OPS everywhere else) as well as during night games (.808 OPS vs. a .761 OPS during the day).
Contreras has tallied two total bases in 12 out of 20 games this month and is projected for 1.7 total bases, making this a four-star play per Covers prop projections.
Braves vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
William Contreras Over 1.5 total bases
Bryce Elder Over 5.5 hits allowed
Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 hits
I'll continue to fade Elder in the second and third legs of my Braves-Brewers SGP.
The Atlanta starter has given up an alarming 51 hits in 39 2/3 innings of work this season, and the leash hasn't been all that tight on him despite his status as an on-again, off-again member of this rotation.
Garrett Mitchell should get one of the required six hits in order to cash this play. The left-hand-hitting outfielder is doing his best Christian Yelich impersonation, batting .273 since being called up on July 1 with five hits sprinkled across his last three games.
Elder has had a great deal of trouble negotiating lefty bats in 2024, allowing a .356 average. By contrast, righties are hitting .263 off the Atlanta hurler.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Brewers odds
Braves vs Brewers live odds
Braves vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-205) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Atlanta +105 | Milwaukee -125
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Braves vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Sportsbooks have been slow to release odds for this game with the Brewers' starting pitching situation up in the air.
- Bettors have yet to move the moneyline and total markets much, with Milwaukee hovering at around -125 with the total of 9.0 juiced to the Over at -120.
- The run line, however, has flipped in favor of the Braves. They are now trading as a consensus favorite at -1.5 in the +160 range at both FanDuel and DraftKings. bet365, however, has stood pat at the opening line as of late Tuesday morning.
Braves vs Brewers trend
The Brewers have hit the team total Over in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+8.40 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Brewers.
Braves vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Bryce Elder (1-4, 6.35 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | TBD (X-X, X.XX ERA) |
Braves vs Brewers latest injuries
Braves vs Brewers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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