Louisville and Creighton will open up the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 20.
Louisville last played on Saturday evening and lost to No. 1 seed Duke. The Cardinals were competitive and led at the half before the Blue Devils took over to win by 11. It's a similar story for the Bluejays, who made it to the Big East Championship and led St. John's at halftime, only to lose by double-digits.
These are two evenly-matched teams who should make for an entertaining watch. My Louisville vs. Creighton predictions and March Madness picks expect Louisville to come out on top on Thursday afternoon.
Who will win Creighton vs Louisville?
Louisville. I'm not turning down the opportunity to back a team in its home state led by PG Chucky Hepburn, who is facing a team from his home state of Nebraska. Hepburn will have a nice offensive advantage, likely being guarded by Steven Ashworth, who has a negative defensive box plus-minus this season. I have the Cardinals winning this game about 6.5 times out of 10.
Creighton vs Louisville prediction
My best bet: Louisville moneyline (-140 at bet365)
Let's start with the Creighton Bluejays advantage, which is extremely clear. It’s Ryan Kalkbrenner.
He's one of the better game-breakers in college basketball. The 7-foot-1 senior comes into this game averaging 19.4 points and 8.8 rebounds with two 30-point games to his name, along with a 49-point game on opening night. He should have his way on Thursday afternoon, too, especially if James Scott gets into foul trouble.
But similar to the loss at Xavier when Kalkbrenner scored 23 points, a big game from him won't be enough. That's because of all of the advantages that the Louisville Cardinals have.
There is a massive shot volume edge for the Cardinals. The great StatsByWill Substack did a great job laying this out, but the Cardinals have a projected edge of 12 more shooting possessions than Creighton. That's the fifth-largest Shot Volume gap in an 8/9 game in history. I don't care who is playing; that's a tough issue to overcome.
I never thought I'd say this about this Louisville team this season, but the combo of Hepburn, Terrence Edwards, and J'Vonne Hadley has turned into a pretty good collection of off-the-dribble creators. Against Top 50 opponents this season, they've scored nearly a point per possession on such sets. Creighton has been just average defensively here.
Then there's the turnover issues.
The Jays come into this game with a turnover rate of 18%. That's not good. Starting PG Steven Ashworth has a turnover rate of 22%. That's not good either. It's particularly problematic when facing the ACC Defensive Player of the Year in Chucky Hepburn. He'll come into this game with 12 steals over his last four contests.
Each of these teams was egregiously seeded. Even more of an issue for Creighton is that this could feel like a home game for their opponent, who has to only travel 70 miles east. This is another shocking decision by the tournament committee.
The Jays have a massive advantage in the frontcourt, but Louisville has a pretty big one in the backcourt. I'll lean on that in March. My projections made this game roughly a 4-point win for Louisville, so I'd play the moneyline price down to -160.
Creighton vs Louisville same-game parlay (SGP)
Louisville moneyline
Ryan Kalkbrenner over 1.5 assists
I paired Kalkbrenner to exceed a small assist total with my best bet. It's a nice non-correlated prop for a nice payout.
The Cardinals have a double rate on bigs in the 80th percentile of college basketball. With that in mind, you'll have to imagine they'll send plenty against the best big they've faced this season. This being one of the worst 3-point shooting Creighton teams in years makes this a more difficult task, but Kalkbrenner should still be able to pass out of these double teams enough to exceed such a low number.
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Creighton vs Louisville odds
Creighton vs Louisville live odds
Creighton vs Louisville opening odds
- Spread: Creighton +2.5 | Louisville -2.5
- Moneyline: Creighton +115 | Louisville -135
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 | Under 145.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Creighton vs Louisville betting trend to know
Louisville is 7-1 this season in games decided by six points or less. Find more college basketball betting trends for Creighton vs. Louisville.
How to watch Creighton vs Louisville
| Region | South |
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Creighton vs Louisville key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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