Thursday afternoon sees the No. 14 seed Montana Grizzlies facing off against the No. 3 seed Wisconsin Badgers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
The Badgers are 17-point favorites and my Montana vs. Wisconsin predictions aren't shying away from laying the points. Here are my best free March Madness picks for March 20, with tipoff at 1:30 p.m. ET
Who will win Montana vs Wisconsin?
The Wisconsin Badgers sit No. 13 in the KenPom rankings and went 13-7 in a tough Big Ten conference. Meanwhile, the Montana Grizzlies finished 15-3 in the Big Sky but rank just 157th at KenPom.
The Grizzlies were hammered by high-major foes earlier in the season and won't be able to keep up with a highly efficient Badgers attack.
Montana vs Wisconsin prediction
My best bet: Wisconsin -17 (-110 at bet365)
These aren't the Wisconsin Badgers of the past, who played at a snail's pace and couldn't win by a margin. Wisconsin went 13-7 in Big Ten play — with seven of those wins coming by more than 15 points.
Head coach Greg Gard has this team playing at a decent pace and filling up the hoop, which should lead to a blowout win against the Montana Grizzlies.
Wisconsin is 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season and 67th in effective field goal percentage (53.6%). They'll be able to score at will against a Montana squad that ranks 250th in adjusted defense and 270th in opponent eFG% (53.1%).
The Grizzlies are significantly better on offense (98th in adjusted efficiency), but that won't be good enough against a Badgers squad that ranks 27th in adjusted defense. Montana is 25th in the country in efficiency at attacking the rim but Wisconsin does a terrific job at preventing penetration, allowing the second-fewest shots at the rim.
Montana was destroyed when it played quality foes earlier this season. In three games against teams in the Top 50 of the KenPom rankings, the Grizzlies lost by 31 points to Oregon, 35 to Tennessee, and 12 to Utah State.
Montana vs Wisconsin same-game parlay (SGP)
Wisconsin -16.5
Over 151.5
John Blackwell Over 16.5 points
Early money has come in on the Over, moving the total from 149 to 151.5, and I'm following the line movement. Both of these teams are significantly better on offense than defense and the Badgers are 9-2 O/U against non-conference foes. The Over has also cashed in 20 of Montana's last 33 games.
Wisconsin guard John Blackwell has dropped 18+ points in five of his last eight games. He ranks in the top 15th percentile of the country in midrange efficiency and efficiency at creating his own shot. He'll light up a Grizzlies squad that is 298th at defending isolation plays per ShotQualityBets, while also ranking 283rd at defending mid-range shots.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Montana vs Wisconsin odds
Montana vs Wisconsin live odds
Montana vs Wisconsin opening odds
- Spread: Montana +16.5 | Wisconsin -16.5
- Moneyline: Montana +1000 | Wisconsin -2000
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 | Under 149.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Montana vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
The Badgers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Montana vs. Wisconsin.
How to watch Montana vs Wisconsin
| Region | East |
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Montana vs Wisconsin key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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