We have the first matchup of this three-game series with the NL Central’s St. Louis Cardinals hosting the NL East's Atlanta Braves. This game is the fifth meeting between these two clubs this season, with the Under cashing in all four of the previous matchups.
Will we get another low-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the bats pick it up this time around? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs Cardinals on Friday, August 26.
Braves vs Cardinals odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Braves were unveiled as consensus -150 favorites on Thursday morning and have since been bet down to -145. The opening total was listed at 7.0 and is now at 7.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Cardinals predictions
- Prediction: Cardinals ML (+133)
- Prediction: Under 7.5 (-107)
- Best bet: Grossman Under 0.5 Hits (+140)
Picks made on 8/26/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Cardinals game info
• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MI
• Date: Friday, August 26, 2022
• First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: BSN
Braves vs Cardinals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Spencer Strider (7-4, 2.95 ERA): The NL Rookie of the Year favorite will look to continue his dominant campaign as right-hander Spencer Strider is slated to take the mound for Atlanta. Starting the season in the bullpen, Strider saw immediate success when moving into the rotation. Arguably Atlanta’s most efficient starting pitcher, the decision to move him into a starting role has been crucial in the Braves’ success this season. Not only has Strider been great all year, but he enters this game in particularly good form. Over his last five starts, Strider is 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. While he only boasts a three-pitch arsenal, each pitch has resulted in a .210 or lower xBA and a whiff percentage of 27% or higher.
Jose Quintana (4-5, 3.45 ERA): Taking the mound for the Cardinals is 10-year veteran Jose Quintana. St. Louis’ left-hander has had a strong year from the start but has been particularly efficient since getting traded to the Cardinals from Pittsburgh at the beginning of August. Over his last six starts, Quintana is 2-0 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Relying on a four-pitch arsenal, Quintana does an excellent job mixing his pitches to keep hitters guessing.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Following a game where Robbie Grossman collected at least two hits, he has failed to record a hit in the next game in each of those last three instances. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cardinals
Braves vs Cardinals picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The St. Louis Cardinals are currently peaking and will look to continue their dominant stretch of baseball in this game. Entering this series, the Cardinals have won 10 of their last 12 games. I expect this strong play to continue with left-hander Jose Quintana slated to take the mound for St. Louis.
This season, Quintana is 4-5 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, and following him is a very strong bullpen. Since July 1, the Cardinals’ relief pitching ranks eighth in the league in BA and sixth in wOBA. While St. Louis utilized two relief pitchers in yesterday's game, its three best arms (Andre Pallante, Giovanny Gallegos, and Jake Woodford) should all be available for this game.
It is very understandable why the Cardinals are underdogs in this game, considering they are facing another powerhouse with a great pitcher taking the mound. However, this team is in a groove right now and is playing some of their best ball of the season.
Should St. Louis be underdogs? Absolutely. Should the Cards be priced at more than +130? I don't think so. This is a value play on the number, as I believe this game should be closer to a pick'em, considering how strong this team is and how great Quintana has been recently.
Prediction: Cardinals moneyline (+133 at BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
While the Cardinals' pitching staff should shut the Braves down, their lineup may struggle to generate runs against right-hander Spencer Strider. As mentioned in the starting pitcher section, Strider is cementing his case to win NL Rookie of the Year with a dominant season on the mound. We should expect this strong pitching to continue against St. Louis, a team that Strider shut down earlier this season.
In his lone career appearance against the Cardinals on July 7, Strider threw six shutout innings while striking out 12 and allowing just two hits. Based on his metrics in that performance, we should not expect any positive regression from this St. Louis roster as it generated a mere .036 xBA, .049 xSLG, and .138 xwOBA in that matchup.
Like the Cardinals, Atlanta’s bullpen is one of the strongest in the league. Since July 1, the Braves’ relief pitching ranks sixth in the league in ERA and seventh in wOBA. Coming off Thursday's rest day, Atlanta’s entire bullpen should be available in this contest. We are getting a generous number on the total because of how powerful each lineup is.
However, it is worth noting that St. Louis’ second-best hitter, Nolan Arenado, is projected to miss his second straight game due to paternity leave. With two strong pitchers taking the mound who each enter this game in great form and are followed by excellent bullpens, the Under should hit for the fifth straight time when these two clubs meet.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-107 at Unibet)
Best bet
The one play I am most confident in is for Robbie Grossman to see regression in this outing following his three-hit performance on Wednesday.
In games following a multi-hit performance this season, Grossman is a mere 10-44 at the dish (with three of those 10 hits coming in one game). I expect this trend to continue in this matchup going against left-hander Jose Quintana, who is in outstanding form.
We are getting a great price on Grossman to fail to get a hit for a couple of reasons. First of all, he hits lefties much better than he hits right-handers, and Grossman has also had a good amount of success against Quintana over the last few seasons.
However, this is not the same hitter, as Grossman is arguably having the worst season of his career.
Pick: Robbie Grossman Under 0.5 Hits (+140 at DraftKings)
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