Braves vs Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions: Kyle Wright Fuels Braves Bounceback

After back-to-back losses to the Diamondbacks, the Braves will be desperate to get back on track. With Kyle Wright on the mound for the series finale, we're expecting Atlanta to do just that — as our MLB betting picks and predictions explain.

Robert Criscola - Contributor at Covers.com
Robert Criscola • Publishing Editor
Jun 1, 2022 • 10:44 ET • 4 min read
Kyle Wright Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves and the Arizona Diamondbacks will wrap up their three-game series at Chase Field on Wednesday afternoon.

The Braves have stumbled out of the gate in Phoenix, dropping each of the first two games. Can they salvage a win in the finale?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs Diamondbacks on Wednesday, June 1.

Braves vs Diamondbacks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Braves opened as consensus favorites of -148, and that line has drifted up about 10 cents at most sportsbooks. The total was unveiled at 9, with some action on the Under causing bookmakers to increase the vig slightly. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Braves vs Diamondbacks predictions

Picks made on 6/1/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Braves vs Diamondbacks game info

Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Date: Wednesday, June 1, 2022
First pitch: 3:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports South, Bally Sports Arizona

Braves vs Diamondbacks betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kyle Wright (4-3, 2.68 ERA): Kyle Wright had three quality starts in five May outings, yet authored a 1-3 record. He has a solid 18-4 strikeout/walk ratio through three road efforts in 2022. His second career appearance came at Chase Field in 2018, but it was just one inning, and he hasn’t pitched there since. 

Madison Bumgarner (2-3, 3.35 ERA): Madison Bumgarner regressed badly in May after pitching to a 1.17 ERA in five April starts. The veteran southpaw registered a 5.33 ERA over five starts last month, with the Dodgers putting up eight earned runs on him over 11 frames. Bumgarner is 8-3 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 15 starts (94 1-3 innings) all-time against the Braves.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Tyler Matzek RP (Out), Eddie Rosario LF (Out).
Diamondbacks: Luke Weaver SP (Out), Keynan Middleton RP (Out), Nick Ahmed SS (Out), Carson Kelly C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Diamondbacks are 25-49 in their last 74 games as a home underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Diamondbacks

Braves vs Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Braves tend not to let things snowball, so they should end their brief two-game losing streak at Chase Field on Wednesday afternoon.

Madison Bumgarner can be an intimidating presence on the mound for the Diamondbacks, but the Braves — who have yet to lose three in a row this year — should still get their hits in. Bumgarner exited May with a 5.33 ERA over five outings, getting tagged for seven home runs in the process.

Austin Riley, who has homered in four of his last seven games for the Braves to take the team lead in that department (12), has gone deep against Bumgarner in the past and can do so again. The North Carolina native will also want to pitch carefully to William Contreras, who has 10 hits in his last 28 at-bats (.357). 

Kyle Wright counters for Atlanta, and aside from a six-run outing against the Red Sox on May 10, he’s been all the Braves could have asked for this year. Arizona and its 29th-ranked lineup by batting average (.220) has negligible experience against Wright, giving the hurler the leg-up in this one.

Once Wright exits, he’ll turn things over to a Braves bullpen that’s eighth in the majors by ERA (3.33). Bumgarner doesn’t have the same luxury, as the D-backs' relief corps ranks 26th by ERA this year (4.36). 

The trends are also calling for Atlanta to rebound, as the Braves have won each of their last five games against left-handed starters, and are 50-20 in their last 70 games following a loss.

The Diamondbacks are 18-48 in their last 66 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 and are 21-45 in their last 66 games after scoring five or more runs in their previous contest.

Prediction: Braves moneyline (-147 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

After a 15-run outburst on Tuesday night, these offenses should regress to the mean.

Despite putting seven runs on the Chase Field scoreboard on Tuesday, the Braves still rank 25th by runs per game on the road this season at 3.55. The D-backs are in a similar boat at home, ranking 23rd at only 3.69 runs per game. 

Bumgarner has some solid prior experiences against this Atlanta lineup to fall back on, as Ronald Acuna Jr., Orlando Arcia, Travis d’Arnaud, Matt Olson, and Dansby Swanson are a combined 2-for-37 (.054) all-time against him.

D-backs manager Torey Lovullo should have the latitude to use Noe Ramirez and Joe Mantiply out of the bullpen in what should be a tight tilt, and the pair has combined to produce 21 consecutive scoreless outings. 

Braves manager Brian Snitker seemingly has A.J. Minter available to him in this one, and he’s fresh off an incredible month of May in which he recorded 10 holds and 13 1-3 scoreless innings. 

Trend bettors should note that the Under is 20-8-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 30 home games.

Prediction: Under 9 (-109 at Unibet)

Best bet

Prop bettors are getting great odds on Kyle Wright to fan six or more batters on Wednesday afternoon.

Wright tackles an Arizona offense that’s registered the second-most strikeouts in baseball this season. They’ve also recorded the second-most strikeouts at home, and against righties. The D-backs have punched out 273 times over 962 at-bats in May which was, once again, 29th in the majors.

Wright has reached the six-strikeout mark in six of his first nine starts of the season and is averaging 6.78 Ks per outing in 2022. He should be able to keep up the pace against Ketel Marte & Co. on Wednesday.

Pick: Kyle Wright Over 5.5 strikeouts (+120)

MLB parlays

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Robert Criscola - Covers.com
Publishing Editor

Robert M. Criscola’s road to becoming a Covers publishing editor began with an internship at Metro New York, which eventually turned into a freelance job at MetroBet covering many sports from a wagering angle, including horse racing. He continued to focus on “The Sport of Kings” by writing for shapperdacapper.com, danonymousracing.com, and informer.fanxt.com before joining the team at the TwinSpires Edge in 2019 as a regular contributor and weekend editor. “Crisco” began writing game previews for Covers in 2022 and joined the editing team in 2023.

His best advice for sports bettors? Bet with your head, not over it.

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