The second installment of this four-game NL series gets underway tonight with the Arizona Diamondbacks hosting the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field. Atlanta’s tabbed as a moderate -130 favorite, while the total sits at 7.5.
My Braves vs. Diamondbacks prediction is optimistic on the favorite, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my Tuesday, July 9 MLB picks.
Braves vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Braves -1.5 (+132 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Left-hander Chris Sale is firmly in the mix for NL Cy Young odds, and he’s slated to take the mound for the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday evening. Sale is 11-3 through 16 starts this season, with a commanding 2.71 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are somehow even stronger, as the southpaw boasts a 2.57 xERA and ranks in the 91st percentile or higher in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate. That success is likely to continue against the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team he is 2-0 against through three career meetings with likewise impressive 2.53 ERA and 0.94 WHIP marks. Arizona lost each of those two games by at least a three-run margin.
Following Sale is one of the league’s best bullpens. Atlanta’s relief staff ranks in the Top 4 in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
By comparison, Arizona’s bullpen ranks in the Bottom 6 of the league in each of those three key categories. The relievers aren’t the only pitching advantage that the Braves possess in this game as right-hander Zac Gallen gets the ball for the Diamondbacks.
Sale outranks Gallen in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Braves vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves -1.5
Over 7.5
Austin Riley 1+ Hits
While Atlanta owns every advantage in this matchup, that doesn’t mean that Arizona can’t also put up some runs of its own. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
If we’re backing the Braves to win in a high-scoring game, then a highly correlated outcome would be for Austin Riley to record at least one hit in the process. Riley boasts a .400 BA through 11 career plate appearances against Gallen and has recorded at least one hit in 18 of his past 23 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Diamondbacks odds
Braves vs Diamondbacks live odds
Braves vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+125) | Arizona +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -134 | Arizona +114
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-122) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Braves vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta opened as a -134 favorite and has since been bet down to -130.
- This line movement shocks me, and I think the market will readjust closer to first pitch.
- The total opened at 7.5 and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I don’t think we will see movement off this number, given that both lineups can score but a Sale/Gallen match up will draw Under money.
Braves vs Diamondbacks trend
Atlanta has won 15 of its past 24 games, with 11 of those 15 wins coming by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Braves vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (11-3, 2.71 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Zac Gallen (6-4, 3.06 ERA) |
Braves vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Braves vs Diamondbacks weather
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