The New York Mets have rolled off a league-best 29-13 record since June 3, and they start a three-game series against their NL East rival Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on Thursday.
Atlanta has Cy Young favorite Chris Sale toeing the rubber for the series opener, but the Braves are missing a slew of impact bats, and the Mets have teed off on southpaws this season. Find out why I like the home team with our free Braves vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Thursday’s bout.
Braves vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Mets moneyline (-105 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The blows keep coming for the Atlanta Braves with second baseman Ozzie Albies hitting the injured list with a fractured right wrist on Monday, and the struggling offense was already without outfielders Ronald Acuna (knee) and Michael Harris (hamstring). Atlanta has scored just 3.77 runs per game in July and ranks 24th with a .297 wOBA and 27th with an 89 wRC+.
It’s an entirely different story for the rolling New York Mets. They’ve averaged 5.0 runs per game with an eighth-ranked .337 wOBA and third-ranked 123 wRC+ for the month. Additionally, New York starter Luis Severino has been serviceable with a 3.58 ERA and 4.41 xFIP this season, including 3.66 and 4.54 marks across his past 10 starts.
The reason the Mets aren’t a sizable home favorite is because Atlanta lefty Chris Sale is having a throwback season with an incredible 13-3 record, 2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 2.51 xFIP.
Still, I value New York sporting equally impressive numbers against left-handed pitchers. The Mets pace the majors in wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws. Additionally, while Sale’s underlying numbers check out, we’re still talking about a 35-year-old hurler with just 151 innings over 31 appearances across the past three seasons. I’m not convinced he can maintain his current dominance, and the Mets are tough on lefties and have a lineup loaded with right-handed bats.
The odds have this game trading at a near coin-flip, so I’m happy to back the team playing better overall and sporting the better lineup, especially given the success the Mets have had against southpaws this season. Finally, I also value the market moving to the New York side, and we’re still landing a number without a high vig.
Braves vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets moneyline
Luis Severino Under 5.5 strikeouts
Luis Severino Under 18.5 outs
There are a lot of positive selling points about a serviceable starting pitcher, and that’s exactly what Severino has been for the Mets this season. His underlying numbers don’t instill oodles of confidence, though, and I’m not anticipating him racking up strikeouts or pitching deep into Thursday’s game. After all, Severino has fanned five or fewer batters in 13 of his past 17 starts, and he’s recorded 18 or fewer outs in 10 of those 17 outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Mets odds
Braves vs Mets live odds
Braves vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 | New York +1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta -119 | New York +110
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Braves vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The market has flipped in this game at both Pinnacle and bet365, with the betting support coming in on the Mets.
- Atlanta opened as a -119 favorite through Pinnacle, and the Braves are now trading at -103 with New York at -103. Similarly, the Mets moved from an opening +105 to -110 at bet365.
- There has also been notable movement to this total. Pinnacle opened at 7.5 and then dipped to 7 before returning to 7.5, while bet365 moved off its opening 7.5 and remains at 7 as of Thursday afternoon.
Braves vs Mets trend
The Mets have won 29 of their past 42 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets
Braves vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast, SNY |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (13-3, 2.70 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (6-3, 3.78 ERA) |
Braves vs Mets latest injuries
Braves vs Mets weather
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