The Cincinnati Bengals will look to start the 2024 season on the right foot after finishing in the basement of the AFC North last year. No. 1 quarterback Joe Burrow is healthy, and the Bengals are the largest favorite on the docket in Week 1 at home against the new-look New England Patriots.
Find out why one of Cincy's new leading running backs headlines our Bengals vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks for Sunday’s season opener at Paycor Stadium.
Patriots vs Bengals prediction
My best bet
Chase Brown Over 12.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Cincinnati Bengals got a good look at running back Chase Brown down the stretch last season, and the rookie showed off as a receiver while catching 11 of his 12 targets for 149 yards and a score over the final five games of the year. He recorded at least one catch in all five of those contests and topped 20 receiving yards three times while playing just 71 offensive snaps.
Brown's role is going to be expanded this season, and he projects to split the backfield work with first-year Bengal RB Zack Moss. Departed rusher Joe Mixon was a snap hog and played 69.5% of Cincy’s offensive snaps last year, which limited Brown to just 12.1% of field time.
Of course, Brown wasn’t in the rotation when No. 1 quarterback Joe Burrow was healthy, either. Backup QB Jake Browning was definitely serviceable down the stretch with an NFL-best 70.4 completion percentage, but the Bengals relied on short and intermediate passes and sheltered the first-time starter.
The pass-happy offense should again have its running backs involved heavily in Week 1, and Mixon hauled in 154 receptions for 1,131 yards over his final three years with Cincinnati. It’s a lot of available looks for Moss and Brown to split up. I’m targeting Brown in the opener because he’s the more dynamic rusher in space and is faster, while Moss profiles as a better blocker.
The New England Patriots also allowed the sixth-highest completion percentage to opposing running backs last season, and trading away four-time Pro Bowl defensive end Matthew Judon in the middle of training camp was a head-scratcher.
Patriots vs Bengals same-game parlay
Bengals -8.5
Zack Moss Over 39.5 rushing yards
Chase Brown Over 8.5 receiving yards
With Cincinnati set to rebound on the defensive side of the ball and Burrow healthy, what’s not to like about the Bengals in a soft matchup? It’s been a complete offseason overhaul for the Patriots, and starting journeyman QB Jacoby Brissett behind a bottom-tier offensive line doesn’t put the Pats in a good position to cover the spread.
The game script will set up Cincy to run the ball to close out Sunday’s game, and I’m anticipating the more trusted Bengals RB being Moss. He profiles as the better between-the-tackles and short-yardage rusher, and it’s the veteran who is currently listed as No. 1 on the depth chart.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only
Patriots vs Bengals odds
Patriots vs Bengals live odds
Patriots vs Bengals opening odds
- Spread: New England +9.5 (-110) | Cincinnati -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New England +370 | Cincinnati -500
- Over/Under: Over 41 | Under 41
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Patriots vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bengals were trading as long as a -9.5 favorite at BetMGM earlier this week, so the move down to -8 is notable.
- BetMGM also briefly tested a -7.5 margin Wednesday, but I don't think we'll see the number move that far down again ahead of kick-off.
- This 41.0 total has moved to the Under since opening at 42.5 in May.
- The number dipped as low as 40.5 two weeks ago following preseason play, but climbed back to 41 on Wednesday.
Patriots vs Bengals betting trend to know
Brown recorded 13+ receiving yards in three of his final 2023 regular season games. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Bengals.
Patriots vs Bengals game info
| Location: | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-8-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Patriots vs Bengals latest injuries
Patriots vs Bengals weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
