An intriguing MLB betting matchup awaits at Petco Park tonight as the Atlanta Braves battle the San Diego Padres.
The Padres proved best in their home opener against the defending World Series champs yesterday, winning 12-1. They are tepid favorites to repeat the result on Friday night, but our free MLB picks and predictions have reasons to believe the Friars may not be the right side to back.
Get the full details in our breakdown for Braves vs. Padres on Friday, April 15.
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Braves vs Padres odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
San Diego opened as the consensus -110 favorites, and as of 11:30 a.m. ET most sportsbooks have raised their price to about -115.
The opening consensus total was 8, with some books holding firm to that number while raising the vig on the Over — but others are now offering a total of 8.5, juiced to the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Padres predictions
Picks made on 4/15/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Padres game info
• Location: PETCO Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Friday, April 15, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports San Diego, MLB.tv
Braves vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kyle Wright (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Wright has been floating between Triple-A and the majors since 2018, but outings like the one he turned in last Saturday , when he struck out six across six shutout innings against Cincinnati, will keep him with the Braves on a regular basis. This will be Wright’s first career start against San Diego.
MacKenzie Gore (MLB debut): With Blake Snell on the IL, the Padres will turn to 23-year-old southpaw MacKenzie Gore to make his MLB debut on Friday night. The No. 3-overall pick from 2017 has had a bumpy road to “The Show,” getting sent down to rookie ball at one point in 2021 to work on his mechanics, but after striking out 16 batters in 12 innings of work this spring, then turning in five shutout innings with Triple-A El Paso on Saturday, Gore looks as ready as he’ll ever be for his first career MLB start.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out).
Padres: Blake Snell SP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 35-17 in the Padres’ last 52 games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.
Braves vs Padres picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Atlanta enters this matchup batting .231 as a team, 16th in the major leagues, but against lefties, they’re hitting .296 — eighth among all MLB clubs. Ozzie Albies — who has six hits over his last four games overall, including two home runs — is 3-for-8 (.375) against southpaws through one week of play, which is not all that surprising for him, as he hit .323 against lefties in 2021.
Adam Duvall and Marcell Ozuna have matching 3-for-6 records against lefties in this early stage of 2022, and Travis d’Arnaud is a perfect 3-for-3. All of this spells trouble for San Diego southpaw MacKenzie Gore in his MLB debut.
Though Gore has given some encouraging signs coming into this start, his body of work in the minor leagues leaves something to be desired, as he authored a 3.93 ERA and 1.47 WHIP across four levels of the minors last season. Once Gore exits, the Padres’ 27th-ranked bullpen by ERA (4.88) will take over... which does not inspire much confidence.
The trends are also very much in favor of the Braves, who are 36-15 in their last 51 games following a loss. They’re also 12-2 in their last 14 games when their opponent scores five or more runs in their previous contest and 11-5 in their last 16 road games.
San Diego did erupt for a 12-1 win last night, but that was just the second time the Friars have topped five runs in eight games this season. They're only 17-37 in their last 54 overall dating back to last year and have struggled against righty starters, winning just five of the last 17 such games.
Prediction: Braves moneyline (+102 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
Though Petco Park is typically a pitcher’s paradise, bettors should expect the runs to come pouring in tonight.
We’ve already predicted that Gore (and the rest of the Padres’ pitching staff) will struggle, but Kyle Wright & Co. may not fare much better.
Wright excelled against the Reds in his 2022 unveiling, but his body of work in the MLB is subpar, as he owns a 6.04 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 76 innings. The Alabama native has fanned 65 batters while walking 49, resulting in a terrible strikeout/walk ratio of 1.3.
The Braves bullpen has pitched to a 4.73 ERA thus far in 2022, which is 26th in baseball, and they own an MLB-worst 56.7% strand rate in that span.
Manager Brian Snitker will not be happy to see San Diego's Jurickson Profar at the plate in key moments, as he has two home runs and seven RBI in high-leverage situations.
Prediction: Over 8 (-115 at DraftKings)
Best bet
After seeing San Diego drop 12 runs in the series opener, Over bettors really shouldn’t think twice about this one.
Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer have been practically unstoppable for the Padres, as the duo combined for nine hits on Thursday. The former is off to an 11-for-32 (.344) start at the dish with a homer and five RBI, while the latter has gone 12-for-26 (.462) while recording a 1.154 OPS.
Bettors should also anticipate Jake Cronenworth having a big game, as he hit .288 with 13 homers in his own ballpark last year, outpacing his road performance by a significant margin (.243 average, eight homers).
After going 0-for-4 on Thursday, it would not be shocking to see Austin Riley get back in the hit column for Atlanta in this spot. He had a .968 OPS on the road last year, compared to a .823 OPS at home.
Pick: Over 8 (-115 at DraftKings)
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