Braves vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds: Strider & Co. Handle San Diego Early

The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres will meet for Game 2 of their three-game series tonight at Petco Park.

Atlanta extended its winning streak to seven games last night with a 2-0 win over San Diego, as both runs came in the first inning. 

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in my free MLB picks for the Padres vs. Braves on April 18.

Braves vs Padres odds

Braves vs Padres predictions

What if this is just who Blake Snell is now? 

The lefty is now 30 years of age and — metric wise — has gotten off to the worst start of his career. Adding as a contributor factor to his slump is that he's a left-handed pitcher who has been relatively ground ball reliant throughout his career, not benefiting from the shift.

Watch a game now: these pitchers have to adjust, and the ones who don't are giving up many more hits that previously would have been outs. Perhaps I'm wrong, but maybe Snell will get it together soon and track back more to borderline ace material. However, no matter what you think long term, it's hard to see that improvement happening in this spot today, and it's why I'm on the Atlanta Braves to get ahead early. 

Let's start with the other side of this equation first. 

Spencer Strider will take the mound today for the Braves. Strider is a dominant fastball pitcher with a K rate that continually has set in the top of the league since he joined — currently in the third percentile — who occasionally gives up the hard-hit ball.

The San Diego Padres are a rough matchup for him because of their power bats and those bats' success against fastball pitches. However, this is the second time Strider has seen San Diego this year after giving up three earned runs (one three-run home run) a little over a week ago. If last season is any indication, Strider should have the upper hand here.

He adjusted well the second time playing teams a season ago, seeing an average run reduction of -0.7. Beyond that, Strider pitched well in that first outing, and the odd home run is easy to dismiss as random rather than repeatable. 

Now back to Blake Snell. It's difficult to discern whether this is something Snell can break out of or is just his natural decline. What's easy to figure out is the data we have in front of us through three starts. 

Snell sits in the bottom 30% percentile of key pitching metrics like exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. You won't find any relief looking at metrics that usually point to signs of a pitcher turning it around.

His expected ERA hovers over seven, and his expected FIP closely aligns with that. That's different from what you want when facing some of the best bats in baseball. The Braves have routinely been in the Top 5 of hard-hit and barrel rates over the last three seasons. They look primed to take advantage of the issues that have plagued Snell this season. 

My best bet: Braves first five moneyline (-135 at bet365)

Braves vs Padres moneyline analysis

I like the Braves tonight, but I see more value in the F5 moneyline than the full one. I explained that in the above section, but it's worth revisiting. This pitching mismatch is a substantial one.

Snell has had progressively worse starts each time he's taken the mound, while Strider has shown continued flashes of brilliance that we saw last season. The best way to exploit that is early on. My projections made the first five moneyline price around -150, with the full game around -145.

Atlanta has gone just 1-4 in their last five meetings against the Padres, but oddly enough, that's flipped when it heads to California. The Braves have won nine of the last 11 meetings that have taken place in San Diego. That's dominance, and we like it to continue going forward.

Braves vs Padres Over/Under analysis

I have no strong side either way here. We were on the Under last night as we faded public steam that saw regression coming from Ryan Weathers, and we disagreed. However, tonight's setup is different.

Strider should be able to work close to five innings giving up 1 to 2 runs, but the variance on the other side for Blake Snell is high. The Southpaw has given up at least three earned runs in five or fewer innings in all his starts this season, and if that happens again, you have to lean Over. However, my projections see no value at the current number.

As for the conditions in Petco Park, they will not be conducive to scoring, adding to the difficulties of having a strong side here. Winds will be blowing in, and temperatures will be cooler, reducing the ball carry. Similar conditions at Petco Park have produced an average run reduction of 19% according to Ballparkpal, 

Braves vs Padres game info

Braves vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Spencer Strider (1-0, 3.38 ERA): Strider is an interesting case. The flashes have been there already, even in this early season. When Strider is at his best, he's hitting double-digit strikeout numbers reminiscent of a young Jacob deGrom. However, he's had a few blimps that involve the longball and blow-up innings. This usually happens when teams aren't striking out. In addition, his walk rate sits near the bottom of the 20% of qualified pitchers who show up, and he can get in trouble. He comes into this one-off back-to-back appearance allowing three earned runs in five innings.

Blake Snell (0-2, 6.92 ERA): Blake Snell is quite a tricky pitcher to pan out for me. The years with the Tampa Bay Rays were dominant but have yet to be replicated. That may seem a little unfair — after all, last year was solid — but some of the sheelings he took overshadowed them, and Snell's previous three seasons in Tampa produced an ERA of 3.1, while his first two in San Diego have produced a 3.79 ERA. He's given up at least three earned runs in less than five innings of work. 

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Atlanta is 9-2 in its last 11 games against San Diego at Petco Park. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres

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