The Atlanta Braves will take on the San Diego Padres for the third time Saturday, September 25 at 7:15 p.m. ET. Technically, this is a day game out in San Diego.
Atlanta ended up winning the actual game on the schedule but took a one-run loss to the Padres earlier in the day, putting themselves just 1.5 games above the Phillies for first place in the NL East.
The Padres are struggling to find reliable starters in the second half of the season, and today might be another case of poor pitching from San Diego. Read our best free Braves vs Padres picks and predictions for September 25.
Braves vs Padres game info
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021
• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Southeast, Bally Sports San Diego
Braves vs Padres odds
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Braves vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Huascar Ynoa (4-5, 3.43 ERA): Ynoa has been hit in September, allowing 11 runs in 19.1 innings against Colorado, Washington and Arizona. None of these teams will be making the playoffs, yet while Ynoa struggled to get past five innings in any of those starts, he’s been keeping his team in the game regardless. He’s a pitcher who will allow 2-4 runs per game and give his team a chance to win.
Vince Velasquez (3-8, 6.23 ERA): Velasquez was acquired by the Padres after a previous stint with the Phillies that never worked out. He has an ERA of 6.23 on the season and allowed four runs on four hits and two home runs against the Cardinals in his first start for the team. Velasquez has been horrible all season long and has a 10.80 ERA in five innings in September. Currently, his WHIP is also 1.48, nearing that red flag of 1.50.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Adam Duvall OF (Questionable), Edgar Santana RP (Out), Stephen Vogt C (Out), Grant Dayton (Out)
Padres: Blake Snell SP (Out), Charis Paddack SP (Out), Matt Strahm RP (Out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Braves are 5-0 in their last five road games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.
Moneyline pick
Despite Ynoa allowing 11 runs in September, he still has an xFIP of 3.61 with 26.8 percent strikeouts in the last 30 days. He’s capable of inducing a high amount of grounders, so when he’s walking batters, there’s a good chance he can get out of jams with a high strikeout rate and high ground ball rate of 54.5 percent.
Ynoa has a .355 wOBA and ISO of .278 in his last 40 plate appearances against lefties. But to righties, he’s locked them down with a .252 wOBA and ISO of just .028 in the last 30 days.
The goal for the Padres will be to bat as many lefties as possible. The Padres current projected lineup includes five lefties of the eight positional players. None of the lefties, including Jake Cronenworth, Adam Frazier, Eric Hosmer, Trent Grisham and Victor Caratini, have really produced against right-handed pitching as of late, however.
The Padres have an ISO of .132 and wOBA of .289 against righties in the last 30 days and were shut down yesterday, yet again.
Meanwhile, Vince Velasquez will take the hill for the Padres and he’s usually an automatic fade. His ERA is above 6 and he’s just allowed runs after runs. It’s bad when the Phillies choose to use bullpen games over an actual starter like Velasquez. That’s why Velasquez now has a chance with the Padres.
On the season, Velasquez has an xFIP of 5.06 with 11.5 percent walks. While the strikeouts are high at 24.4 percent, Velasquez doesn’t induce many ground balls and gives up 23.4 percent line drives. He’s also been brutal against lefties with a .396 wOBA and an ISO of .245.
Meanwhile, righties have a wOBA of .331 and ISO of .269. To put it lightly, Velasquez has been hammered for power this season.
In the last 30 days, the Braves projected lineup has an ISO of .242 with a wOBA of .338. They’re keeping the ball off the ground and hitting 19.5 percent line drives. The one area where the Braves have struggled is inducing walks. They have been up at the plate to swing and haven’t had much patience. If that means they’ll hit home runs over taking walks, then I’m fine with that.
PREDICTION: Braves (-115)
Over/Under pick
We’re back to a nine-inning game for the Braves and the total is just one run higher with two more innings to play compared to last night.
Velasquez is usually good for four or five runs on his own and Ynoa has been consistently giving up two to four runs per game. The Padres bullpen has been overworked and the Braves bullpen isn’t necessarily the best in baseball either.
The Padres offense has been abysmal all second half, but I can’t help but notice five lefties for the Padres against Ynoa. I think there’s some potential there, too.
Both teams could end up with five or more runs in this one. It’s more likely that the Braves reach that type of milestone, but it’s possible both teams get there.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-120)
Braves vs Padres betting card
- Braves -115
- Over 8.5 (-120)
Picks made on 9/25/2021 at 8:45 a.m. ET
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