The NL East divisional race could still get a little more interesting, but for the moment, the Philadelphia Phillies remain in firm control of the top spot. The Atlanta Braves, however, could salvage a series split vs. Aaron Nola tonight by avoiding the punchout.
My Braves vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, September 1 believe the Braves' strikeout propensity is being oversold in this one.
Braves vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Aaron Nola Under 5.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola will take the mound vs. the Atlanta Braves for the fourth time this season. We've seen a variety of results throughout those performances, but a lack of strikeouts is the common thread.
I projected Nola's strikeout number at 4.5. A full strikeout of value at a plus-money price makes this easily the most appealing bet of this game.
He's gone Over this number just once in his three games vs. Atlanta this season, and Nola struck out just 23 batters in August, by far his lowest output of any month this season. It makes a number like this seem too good to be true. So what gives?
Atlanta has a reputation for being a team that strikes out a lot, and that's certainly well-earned. Entering today, the Braves are Top 5 in whiff rate and swing rate. However, whether it's because of injuries or a change in approach, things have been slightly different down the stretch.
This team isn't taking the same free-swinging, chase-every-pitch-because-we'll-hit-home-runs approach we saw earlier in the year. Entering today, Atlanta's chase rate of 29% is the lowest it's been in several years and is just about average in baseball. That's significant here.
Nola is a pitcher who relies on opponents chasing outside the zone. Entering today, he ranks in the 85th percentile in chase rate. Naturally, facing teams with a high chase rate has resulted in him getting many more Ks, like when he faced the Colorado Rockies (second highest chase rate) and struck out nine batters. It doesn't feel fully captured in this number today, and I'm taking advantage of it.
My bet here is fading a viewpoint about the Braves that isn't exactly rooted in reality. Atlanta has shown a much better ability to illustrate patience at the plate than in years past. They've shown that against this particular pitcher multiple times now. Add in the fact that Nola appears to be fading as we reach the season's end, and I like this bet even better.
Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Nola Under 5.5 strikeouts
Whit Merrifield 1+ hits
I am keeping tonight's same-game parlay short and sweet. I'm pairing Whit Merrifield to get a hit with my best bet.
Merrifield has the lowest whiff rate and chase rate of any Braves player. He's also batted .300 off Nola with an OPS of .764.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Phillies odds
Braves vs Phillies live odds
Braves vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta +116 | Philadelphia -136
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-192) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+158)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This series has been even as it can be in recent history. The two teams are a perfect 5-5 in their last 10 matchups.
- Atlanta has been hot lately. The Braves are 7-3 over their last 10 games and up 2.84 units during that time frame.
- Philadelphia has also been winning bettors money lately. The Phillies are 6-4 across their last 10 contests, which has yielded bettors almost a full unit of profit.
- We saw some slight movement towards the Under here. The total has gone from 8.5 at open to a flat 8 at most books.
Braves vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have hit the F5 run line in 38 of their last 59 games at home (+12.00 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.
Braves vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Schwellenbach (5-6, 3.72 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (12-6, 3.30 ERA) |
Braves vs Phillies latest injuries
Braves vs Phillies weather
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