The Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox begin a two-game series at Fenway Park on Tuesday night. The Red Sox have slipped below .500 and will try to turn around their sinking ship against the defending World Series champions.
Here are our best free Braves vs. Red Sox picks and predictions for August 9.
Braves vs Red Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with Atlanta between -145 to -150 and the Over/Under at 9.5. Early money has come in on the Braves, shifting their line to as high as -161 at some books although a few are still offering -150. The total has stayed steady at 9.5 as of 10 a.m. ET.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Red Sox predictions
Picks made on 8/9/2022 at 10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Tuesday, August 9, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports South, NESN
Braves vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Charlie Morton (5-5, 4.09 ERA): Morton was one of Atlanta's best pitchers in 2021 but he's been up and down this year. He's coming off an impressive performance against the Phillies last Wednesday when he scattered three hits over 6 2-3 innings of shutout ball. The two-time All-Star still has one of the filthiest curveballs around but he's been getting hit a lot harder than he has in recent years.
Rich Hill (4-5, 4.52 ERA): Hill came off the IL last Wednesday and promptly gave up six hits and four runs in three innings against the Astros. The southpaw is serviceable at this point of his career but not much more. He does a decent job of inducing soft contact but he rarely makes batters miss and his expected slugging percentage against ranks among the bottom 20th percentile of all pitchers.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Red Sox are 6-14 in their last 20 games versus a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Red Sox
Braves vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Braves are coming off a rough series at Citi Field where they went 1-4 to fall seven games behind the Mets in the NL East. That said, Atlanta still has the third-best record in the National League and is very much a World Series contender.
The same can't be said for the Red Sox, who were expected to have a fire sale at the trade deadline and instead decided to play out their hand despite sitting at the bottom of the AL East. The Red Sox have gone just 9-21 in their last 30 games and are fresh off a series against the lowly Royals where they lost three of four.
Both squads are sending a pair of geezers to the mound with Boston starting 42-year-old Rich Hill and Atlanta giving the ball to 38-year-old Charlie Morton.
What you see is what you get with Hill and his an expected ERA of 4.58, which is almost identical to his xERA last year (4.45) and his actual ERA this year (4.52). It certainly doesn't help that the Braves mash against southpaws like Hill, ranking second in the majors with an OPS of .777 vs. left-handed pitchers.
The Red Sox should be one of the better offensive teams around but the bottom of the batting order has been awful and they rank just 25th in the majors with an OPS of .664 over the last 30 days.
Although Morton has been inconsistent this season (especially with his control), he has looked very sharp lately. In his last nine starts, he has a 2.40 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .179.
The Braves also have the advantage in the bullpen as their relievers rank sixth in the majors with a collective ERA of 3.31 while the BoSox are 27th with a 4.42 ERA.
There's really no reason to consider backing the Sox in this spot and I'm going to keep fading this team that has been in a free fall over the last month.
Prediction: Braves moneyline (-150 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Despite going ice-cold at the plate since the start of July, the Red Sox are still a respectable 11th in the majors with 4.48 runs per game. They also rank sixth in the majors in batting average (.253) and seventh in hard-hit rate.
I certainly won't rule out them being able to get to Morton, who has posted his worst hard-hit rate (with at least 500 pitches) since MLB started keeping track of that stat in 2015.
The veteran also has a barrel rate that ranks in the bottom 25th percentile and has struggled with walks at times. His 8.7% walk rate is the highest it's been since 2018.
That said, the Braves will likely be able to plate plenty of runs as well. They lead the majors in barrel rate while ranking third in hard-hit percentage and they should have no issues with Hill or the weak bullpen behind him.
With the Over 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these teams since 2020, I'm leaning in that direction today.
Prediction: Over 9.5 (-110 at SportsInteraction)
Best bet
Austin Riley has gone a bit cold at the plate in August but he has still been the Braves' best hitter this year.
Riley is second in the majors with 247 total bases while ranking fifth with a .584 slugging percentage. The third baseman has also been crushing the ball against southpaws with an absurd .752 SLG and has had success in Boston, racking up a pair of doubles with a triple and a home run in five career games at Fenway.
Hill has also been extremely reliant on his fastball and curveball, with those pitches making up 78.2% of his arsenal. Riley has a slugging percentage of .530 against fastballs (with an xSLG of .610) while boasting an insane .897 slugging percentage versus curves.
Pick: Austin Riley Over 1.5 total bases (-120)
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