The Atlanta Braves are one win away from advancing to the NLCS and only have the ice-cold bats of the Milwaukee Brewers in their way. The Brewers have scored just two runs in this best-of-five, low-scoring series and need to find a way to plate some runs — or the NL Central champ’s season is over.
The Braves, who opened at -165 MLB betting favorites, will start Charlie Morton on three days of rest, which isn’t common practice but Morton looked solid in Game 1 after handling the first 21 batters and giving up just two hits and a walk before Rowdy Tellez’s two-run bomb.
The Brewers will counter with lefty Eric Lauer, who hasn’t pitched since October 1 and will be making his postseason debut.
Here are our free picks and predictions and MLB odds for Brewers vs. Braves on Tuesday, October 12.
Brewers vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Brewers vs Braves picks
Picks made on 10/12/2021 at 11:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for some late-season baseball betting, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Ready to hit Dingers? Get up to $2,000 in risk-free bets with PointsBet. Claim Now
Canada: The Betway welcome bonus is a Covers exclusive 100% match on the first deposit — for up to $300 — for free. Claim Now
Brewers vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Tuesday, October 12, 2021
• Time: 5:07 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Brewers vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Eric Lauer (7-5, 3.59 ERA): Lefty Eric Lauer will be making his first appearance of this postseason and his first start since October 1. The Dodgers tagged him for five runs in that start and having to think about that one outing after a great season is some psychological gymnastics. The Brewers went 12-12 in Lauer’s 24 starts this year but have dropped four of his last seven outings. Lauer saw Atlanta once this year, allowing three runs over three innings in a relief spot, and will have a short leash as Milwaukee will have no problem turning things over to the bullpen.
Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA): Morton will get his second turn in this series after throwing six innings in Game 1 but is coming in on short rest (three days). He nearly outdueled Corbin Burnes last Friday but gave up a two-run homer in the seventh inning after cruising through his first 21 batters. He finished allowing just three hits and striking out nine. Morton has a ton of playoff experience and came into this series with a 3.01 ERA in the second half of the season. We doubt Morton goes through the order three times, but this is the right move for Atlanta — who wants to wrap it today and not have to face Burnes in Game 5.
Brewers vs Braves series odds (Atlanta leads 2-1)
Brewers: +245
Braves: -295
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Brewers: None.
Braves: Jorge Soler OF (Out), Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out), Marcell Ozuna OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Brewers are 0-6 in their last six playoff road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves.
Brewers vs Braves predictions
Braves first five innings -0.5 (-110)
Atlanta starters have been nearly perfect, having allowed just two runs across three starts and 17 innings. The Atlanta bullpen has been equally as good and has given up just seven hits and zero runs in nine innings of work. Atlanta is exploiting Milwaukee’s weakness as the Brewers are hitting .175 and are 0 for 16 with RISP — and haven’t scored a run now in 19 innings.
The Braves haven't been slugging themselves either, hitting just .202, but if Milwaukee lets Atlanta hang around all game, the Braves' superior lineup will do some damage eventually — even against the Milwaukee bullpen, which can’t trust Adrian Houser anymore after giving up four of the Braves' seven runs in the series.
Atlanta has the advantage on the mound with veteran Charlie Morton — even if he is on short rest. Morton looked unhittable in Game 1 before a seventh-inning two-run homer ended his day. Morton will likely be tasked with getting through the order twice, as starting on three days of rest never happens during the regular season but this is a veteran pitcher with 13 postseason starts under his belt and he knows his job.
The Brewers are opting to save Corbin Burnes for a possibly non-existent Game 5 and instead throw out lefty Eric Lauer, who hasn’t pitched since Oct 1. The lefty has walked 41 batters in his 118 innings of work and coming into a do-or-die game with zero postseason experience, keeping that heart rate and his mechanics in check could prove difficult. We like Atlanta to be patient in the early going and wait for Lauer’s mistakes — its best chance at winning is getting runs on the board before seeing the Milwaukee bullpen.
Offensively, the difference in this series has been Atlanta’s pearled prince, Joc Pederson. The pinch-hitting lefty has just three at-bats in the series but has two homers and knocked in four of the team’s seven runs. Milwaukee may be the best-assembled pitching roster in baseball but Atlanta is crazy deep with the sticks and that’s its biggest advantage. Pederson will likely make another pinch-hit appearance with a lefty starting for the Brewers.
With the 3-0 win at home yesterday, the Braves are now 10-2 in their last 12 and 6-1 at home over their last seven. It’s the home team for us Tuesday... but the moneyline is a bit steep at -160 and we don't like the run line — so we’re taking the to have a lead after five innings at -110.
Under 8 (+101)
With the Under a perfect 3-0 — and neither team topping their team totals — through three games, it’s safe to call this a low-scoring series. Neither club is hitting above .205 and a total of nine runs have been scored over 27 innings of baseball. Milwaukee hasn’t scored since Game 1 and taking the Over is a real roll of the dice at this point.
Despite some heavy usage yesterday, all the arms in the bullpen should be available: Sunday was an off day as well so each teams’ top relievers will likely be asked to throw again today. Outside of Houser, no reliever has allowed a run yet in this series and they collectively have allowed just nine hits over 16 innings of work while striking out 18.
This series has also featured some elite defense, which isn’t a surprise if you have been following these clubs all season. Both Atlanta and Milwaukee finished in the Top 8 in defensive runs saved and yesterday's game featured a ton of run-saving plays on the infield.
As we mentioned above, Morton will likely be tasked to see 18 batters before he hands things over to an Atlanta bullpen that has allowed zero runs and had no problems getting 12 outs yesterday. The Milwaukee team total is sitting at 3.5 and we are also loving the Under at -104.
Lauer is a big question mark but in the postseason, managers have no problems pulling the plug at the first sign of trouble. We’re sure Craig Counsell has his B- and C-plans already lined up and excluding Houser, this Milwaukee bullpen has been lights out as well.
The total opened at 8 and is leaning to the Over, which is an automatic Under bet from us. No game has seen more than three runs and with both teams’ defenses and bullpens, this game could settle into a groove and be another quick one.
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Brewers vs. Braves picks, you could win $28.37 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on MLB odds?
You can bet on MLB odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB moneylines, runlines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB odds in your area.
