Gasp! Jacob deGrom is in a slump! Well, for him. No other human being on the planet would call what deGrom is doing right now a slump, but that’s just how good he’s been this season.
deGrom will look to “bounce back” when he and the Mets host the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew will try to do some bouncing back of their own. They’ve dropped two straight after winning 13 of their previous 14 games but will be big MLB betting underdogs against deGrom.
Check out our free picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Mets on Tuesday, July 6, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Brewers vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, New York, NY
• Date: Tuesday, July 6, 2021
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, SNY, BSN
Brewers vs Mets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonWith Jacob deGrom toeing the slab, New York opened as hefty -250 chalk at TwinSpires, and that number stretched to -278 before backing up slightly to -265, where the moneyline stands at 4:30 p.m. ET. Ticket count is beyond 3/1 and money 4/1 on the Mets. "No surprise, the public is all over the Mets today. We'll be big Brewers fans," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total moved from 6.5 to 7, with 56 percent of tickets/65 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameBrewers vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Brett Anderson (2-5, 4.69 ERA): Journeyman starter Brett Anderson has been solid at times this season but is coming off a rough month of June, where he pitched to a 5.74 ERA and had a .292 opponent batting average.
Jacob deGrom (7-2, 0.95 ERA): deGrom's slump consists of him allowing five runs on eight hits while striking out 19 in his last 13 innings. Yeah. He's pretty good. He also leads the MLB in ERA, WHIP, FIP, and strikeouts per nine innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Brewers: Lorenzo Cain CF (Out), Kolten Wong 2B (Out), Zack Brown RP (Out), Justin Topa RP (Out).
Mets: J.D. Davis 3B (Out), Sean Reid-Foley RP (Out), Dellin Betances RP (Out), Tommy Hunter RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 6-0 in deGrom's last six starts at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Mets.
Runline pick
deGrom finally gave up some first-inning runs last time out, surrendering three runs in the first inning against the Braves in what turned out to be an eventual 4-3 Mets’ loss. But deGrom responded to that bad innings by pitching another scoreless six innings and striking out 14.
As mentioned, deGrom is having an otherworldly season and he should bounce back against a Brewers team that, while they've vaulted into first place in the NL Central, still isn’t a great hitting team. Milwaukee ranks 29th in batting average and 26th in strikeouts per game, and that does not bode well against a guy who limits opponents to a .122 average and strikes out 14.4 batters per nine innings.
The Mets are also struggling at the dish, but have the much easier matchup against Anderson who has a 1.46 WHIP and is allowing opponents to hit .284 off him this season.
Additionally, prior to the loss the last time out, the Mets had won eight consecutive deGrom starts, covering the 1.5 runline six times in that stretch. With no value on the moneyline, we’ll take a stab with deGrom and the Mets on the spread once again.
PREDICTION: Mets -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
While there is no value on the moneyline here, the total is much more intriguing. An opening number of 6.5 is not out of the ordinary for a deGrom start but the early money has come in on the Over, bumping the number up to 7.0, which looks far more tempting for Under bettors.
For starters, there have been seven total runs scored or fewer in 11 of deGrom’s 14 starts this season and you already know we think the right-hander will do his part to keep the Brewers off the scoreboard for the most part.
Second, while Anderson has not been great by any means, he has had some solid starts this season and the Mets rank 19th in batting average and 23rd in OPS versus lefties. Then Anderson will hand the ball to a strong Brewers bullpen led by Josh Hader. We like this one to sneak Under the number.
PREDICTION: Under 7 (-110)
Brewers vs Mets betting card
- Mets -1.5 (-110)
- Under 7 (-110)
Picks made on 7/6/2021 at 1:20 p.m. ET
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