It's Game 2 between the Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Mets. Last night, Milwaukee blanked on the scoreboard in a 4-0 final.
The struggles continue for Milwaukee, as it has been dreadful since June and looked as bad as ever last night. New York scored three runs in the opening inning and were never threatened. The Brew Crew now fall a little further behind in the NL Central to the St Louis Cardinals, and have now won just one of their last ten games.
Read our MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Brewers to see which side we'll be backing tonight.
Brewers vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The odds for this game were released late last night. Unlike yesterday, the Brewers opened up as a favorite at around -120. Since then, they've taken a bit more money and fallen to -135 in most places, with the Mets returning at around +115. The total opened at 7.5 and has stayed put at that number.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Brewers vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 6/15/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Brewers vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
• Date: Wednesday, June 15, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, SNY
Brewers vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Corbin Burnes (3-4, 2.48 ERA): The reigning NL CY Young winner has, once again, gotten off to an effective and impressive start. His ERA tells you that: His .98 WHIP even tells you more. Take away his five earned runs surrendered two outings ago, and he's given up just one run or less in three straight starts. There isn't a ton to knock Burnes for. His hard-hit rate isn't exactly stellar, but even that is slightly above league average. Burnes profits big time against teams that chase pitches, with his chase rate in the league's Top 5% of all pitchers. Burnes gets it done with a trio of breaking pitches, with the cutter pitch being the most popular.
David Peterson (3-0, 3.00 ERA): For my money, Peterson is the best (healthy) Mets pitcher. He doesn't often go deep into games but what he does provide is usually adequate. He's given up just one earned run in back-to-back starts, with one coming against the Dodgers. Peterson doesn't strike out many people, and he sometimes has a problem with the longball. But, overall, he's highly effective in getting soft contact. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate rank near the top of baseball.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Brewers: Luis Urias 2B (Out), Kolten Wong 3B (Out).
Mets: No injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Brewers are 1-4 in the last five meetings in New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Mets
Brewers vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This isn't a bet I'm rushing to place. The Brewers desperately need a win and have their ace on the mound tonight. However, the problem for them is that they can't beat anyone right now. Last night, their bats looked as lifeless as ever, and while it's a bit anecdotal, they looked somewhat defeated after the moment they went down a few runs. I can't back Milwaukee anymore until it breaks out of this slump.
As I talked about yesterday, the Mets are a bit difficult to quantify or handicap because they don't do much overly impressive. They don't hit balls extremely hard or, as a collective, dominate you at the mound. But they get timely hits and are effective at getting runners home. They have a nice matchup today simply because it's a righty that's throwing to them.
They are first in MLB in wRC+ with 120 against right-handers. They also have the second-best wOBA in baseball against right-handed pitching. So I have to take advantage of that, especially when getting them at plus money.
On the other side, it feels counterintuitive to talk about the Brewers matchup against Peterson for a few reasons. First, he likely won't go very long, two, they simply can't hit anyone anymore unless they are hitting it out of the park. Because of that, I think he'll do an excellent job of putting the Mets in a position to get a win today. Fastball hurlers haven't been the Brewers' specialty, and it's hard to see that changing in this spot.
Like yesterday, my projections don't see much of a lean here. They give New York a 49% chance of winning this one, which feels relatively low given how Milwaukee has looked lately. Nevertheless, I'll take my chances on a nice price for a hot team.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (+115 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
I feel much more comfortable on this side. I'll be rolling with the Under and feel good about it.
Before we talk a little more about the pitchers, there are a few other things at play here that I feel are worth mentioning. First, winds in Citi Field will be blowing fairly briskly to left field tonight.
According to data compiled by BallparkPal, that has resulted in an average reduction of extra-base hits by 17%. That feels like a reasonably big deal, with one team struggling to get runs and the other relying on the extra-base hit.
Another thing to think about here? The trends have heavily pointed to the Under between these two. Last night's game was no different either. It marked the fifth straight meeting in New York between these two teams that went Under.
Now back to the pitchers for a few moments. Even though I like the Mets overall in this game, it's hard to envision them doing too much damage to Burnes. His biggest issue has come against teams that hit the ball hard and don't strike out.
There are few teams who have that resume, and the Mets certainly aren't one. They rank 8th in baseball in soft contact and have the 8th lowest exit velocity in the league. They don't chase a ton of pitches, but they do it more than the average. I'd expect Burnes to take advantage of that.
As already mentioned, I don't expect Peterson to go too long, but he's well suited to be effective while he's in. Unfortunately, the Brewers' bats have been cold as of late, and they seem to struggle more with pitchers that can induce soft contact like Peterson can.
I want to isolate this pitching matchup because I think both are well suited to keep the bats in check early. Because of that, I'm targeting the first five Under market. My projections see this staying under about 65% of the time. So I'll grab that edge here.
Prediction: Under 4.5 first five innings (-150 at FanDuel)
Best bet
It's time for one of the most exhilarating bets in baseball, a no run scored in the first bet. Generally, this isn't a good bet to make. You're rarely getting the excellent value needed because of how popular it's become, and the first inning of games is an inning, generally, where at least one run is scored. Today is an exception.
My projections are giving us about a 12% edge here, making it one of the better bets on today's slate. We've talked enough about the pitching matchups and the issues both teams will face today at the plate. Couple that with our projections, and I like this even more.
The Mets do a relatively good job of scoring in the first inning, but you'd have to think that won't be the case today. The Brewers will be determined to get off to a clean start and have their ace on their mound. That ace happens to be one of the best first-inning pitchers in baseball. On the flip side, I'm just simply not going to count on Milwaukee scoring any runs with ease right now. I feel better about that when I can isolate it to just one inning.
Pick: No runs scored in first inning (-120 at DraftKings)
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