The San Diego Padres enter Monday’s meeting with the Milwaukee Brewers riding a four-game winning streak. The Padres are now only a half-game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings, but keeping pace with them is going to be relentless. With that said, the team will be eager to get this series with the Brewers started off on the right foot.
Will San Diego stay hot with a home win over Milwaukee? Continue reading our MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Padres.
Brewers vs Padres odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
After opening as -101 underdogs, Milwaukee is now at either -105 or -103 in this meeting with a red-hot San Diego team.
The total opened at 8.0 and is still available at that number by the time of this writing, but some shops are offering 7.5. You’ll have to pay a hefty price to take the Over on the 7.5, while the Under is a little juiced at 8.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Brewers vs Padres predictions
Picks made on 5/23/2022 at 1:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Brewers vs Padres game info
• Location: PETCO Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Monday, May 23, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports San Diego, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Brewers vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Adrian Houser (3-4, 3.22 ERA): Houser gave up no earned runs while striking out six across six innings against the Atlanta Braves in his last start. Houser has been a really solid home arm for Milwaukee, but he has struggled on the road this year. He’s 1-2 with a 5.27 ERA in three road starts compared to a 2-2 record with a 1.99 ERA over four outings at American Family Field.
Nick Martinez RHP (2-2, 3.89 ERA): The Padres announced Martinez as their opening-game starter for this series, and the righty is coming off of a good performance against the Philadelphia Phillies. Martinez pitched four shutout innings in that game and struck out six, which was a great way to bounce back from an outing in which he gave up five earned runs over four innings against the Chicago Cubs. It’ll be interesting to see which version of the righty shows up tonight.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Brewers: Freddy Peralta P (Out), Jake Cousins P (Out), Justin Topa P (Out), Willy Adames SS (Out), J.C. Mejia P (Out), Jandel Gustave P (Out), Pedro Severino C (Out).
Padres: Mike Clevinger P (Out), Adrian Morejon P (Out), Matt Beaty OF (Out), Pierce Johnson P (Out), Austin Adams P (Out), Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Drew Pomeranz P (Out), Michel Baez P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Brewers are 7-1 in their last eight series openers. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres
Brewers vs Padres picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Padres are in a groove coming into this series, but this matchup appears to favor the road team — at least on paper. The Brewers have been one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball against right-handed pitching in 2022, as the team is tied for second in MLB in on-base plus slugging in this split. Milwaukee is also tied for second in isolated power against righties, and the team is tied for fifth in the league in weighted runs created against them.
Overall, this Brewers squad just loves avoiding southpaws, and it’s understandable with three of the team’s first four hitters being lefties. Rowdy Tellez and Kolten Wong make up two of those three, and both of them have an OPS of .817 or higher when facing righties.
The third lefty bat in that crew is former NL MVP Christian Yelich, and while he hasn't fully re-emerged as that megastar this season, his .235 batting average against right-handers is somewhat misleading. His .451 slugging percentage vs. righties is more than 100 points higher than it is against lefties. He's also slashing .257/.345/.432 overall since the start of May, so he may be turning a corner.
It’s also worth noting that a lot of San Diego’s success this year happens to stem from the Padres beating up on lesser competition. The team is actually 7-17 in its last 24 games against opponents with winning percentages of 60% or higher.
The Brewers also have the better starter on the mound, as Houser has proven to be far more reliable than Martinez. Houser has had a sub-4.00 ERA in three of his last four seasons, while Martinez is in the midst of his first year as a full-time MLB starter since 2017 after spending several seasons in Japan. Martinez has also had a rough go at it recently, and the Brewers are capable of beating up on him a bit.
Prediction: Brewers moneyline (-103 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
This game has the potential to be a high-scoring one for the Brewers, as they have a number of lefty bats who will be looking forward to facing off against Martinez.
Just two outings ago, Martinez gave up five earned runs in four innings, and he just doesn’t have the type of overpowering stuff required to shut down what has been a very good Milwaukee offense, particularly against right-handed pitching.
And if the Brewers end up scoring five or so runs in this game, it’s going to be hard for the Over not to hit. As good as Houser can be, he’s not the type of pitcher that will put up zeroes that often.
The Over is 5-1-1 in Milwaukee's last seven road games, and it’s also 4-0 in its last four away games with a total between 7 and 8.5. Meanwhile, the Over is 7-2 in San Diego’s last nine games against NL Central opponents.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
Best bet
While the Padres are playing extremely well at the moment, not much separates these teams. And considering how well Milwaukee has hit against righties this year, it’s going to be difficult to lay off the Brewers.
Meanwhile, the Padres have actually been underwhelming against righties this season, which is good news for anybody that bets on Milwaukee to win with Houser on the hill.
San Diego is just 23rd in the league in weighted runs created against right-handed pitching and only 25th in on-base plus slugging versus righties in 2022. This is a team that does its best work against southpaws, and that is why the value is too good on the Brewers.
Pick: Brewers moneyline (-103 at WynnBET)
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