It's Monday. Home runs are getting suppressed thanks to a cold spell, teams are coming off doubleheaders, bullpens are getting taxed, and some hurlers are making their third starts.
There is a lot of actionable information today in terms of betting on or against pitchers, so let's find some gems.
These are my favorite MLB pitcher props for Monday, April 7.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 7
Mize Under 4.5 Ks (-117 at Caesars)
Fitts Under 5.5 hits allowed (-125 at Caesars)
Eovaldi Under 4.5 hits allowed (-113 at Caesars)
Today's SP best bets
Yankees vs. Tigers
The angle: Casey Mize has to battle the rain, the Yankees, the wind, and a career 7.04 K/9
The move: Casey Mize Under 4.5 strikeouts (-117 at Caesars)
Casey Mize might have struck out six across 5+ innings in his season debut, but today will be a different story.
First off, he is not a heavy strikeout pitcher to begin with, boasting a career K/9 just above 7.0 and a K% below 19%. He will need six innings to flirt with five punchouts, and after an 82-pitch start last week, getting that deep is unlikely. Don't read too much into his six Ks vs. the Mariners, either. Seattle is one of the highest K% teams in baseball.
Next is the matchup. It's priced in, but the New York Yankees can hit him hard and make a quicker outing. The Detroit bullpen has every arm but one available, so a sub-15-out performance is in the cards vs. the best offense in baseball right now.
Finally, we have the weather. It's going to be miserable in Detroit. Temperatures are in the 40s, there is a big wind blowing out, and rain is possible. There might even be snow.
Cold-weather pitching is never good for the muscles, and his leash was already a little short. This potential rain/snow with heavy winds and low temperatures sounds like an unpleasant pitching experience, especially if the Bombers can keep him on the mound longer than he wants to be.
Jays vs. Red Sox
The angle: There is the chance this game is PPD, but 5.5 hits allowed in a potentially delayed game is too high
The move: Richard Fitts Under 5.5 hits allowed (-125 at Caesars)
This might be the worst weather on the board today. Rain is expected all afternoon and temps will be in the 30s. The rain might stop before the first pitch, but drizzle and terrible pitching conditions will remain.
That might sound like a bad idea to bet on efficiency from Richard Fitts, but he only threw 71 pitches in his first start, and the Boston Red Sox bullpen is not in terrible shape despite the doubleheader yesterday. Boston is down three arms, and their middle relievers are in good form.
It's also a matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, who have been anything but an intimidating offense. Toronto just got swept by the Mets and scored only three runs in the three-game set.
There is a good chance this game is postponed but if they do play it, it could be an abbreviated outing from Fitts even if he's pitching well.
Rangers vs. Cubs
The angle: More miserable weather and a total of 6
The move: Nathan Eovaldi Under 4.5 hits allowed (-113 at Caesars)
This is another game with possible snow. It also has a total of 6, which is insane. I like the Over just on merit alone, but there is a chance neither starter gets deep, especially Nathan Eovaldi, who is coming off a complete-game shutout where he threw 99 pitches and gave up four hits.
Thirty-degree temperatures and double-digit winds blowing in is not exactly hitting weather, but it's also a spot where the Texas Rangers will be reluctant to push Eovaldi, who has had injuries in the past.
He has also been one of the most un-hittable pitchers over the last three seasons, with 271 hits allowed over 330 innings of work. Making contact in these temperatures is not fun, giving us several paths to this Under.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
