It’s a clash of two of the top World Series contenders as the Milwaukee Brewers visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies, and I've got Brewers vs. Phillies predictions for this Wednesday afternoon affair.
After taking each of the first two games in the three-game series, the MLB odds have the Phillies as -180 moneyline favorite with their hot bats looking to continue their impressive play.
Find out why my best bet involves the hot-hitting Bryce Harper in my MLB picks for June 5.
Brewers vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Most people are expecting one of Mookie Betts or Shohei Ohtani to prevail in the NL MVP odds this season, but with the way Bryce Harper played for the Philadelphia Phillies in May, he’s shot up the oddsboard and is hot on their tails.
Harper has been among the most powerful hitters through the first two-plus months of the season and he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. With 14 home runs, Harper is tied for the second-most in the NL while sitting third in SLG (.517), third in RBIs (44), and ninth in total bases (109).
What makes it all the more impressive is that he actually started the season looking like his age may be catching up to him with a slash line of .230/.345/.460 through the first 27 games. Then he exploded in May to the tune of a .313/.407/.583 slash line with 12 extra-base hits in 26 games.
He should be capable of continuing his MVP-level play against the Milwaukee Brewers, especially with Aaron Ashby taking the mound. Ashby, who missed the entire 2023 season after shoulder surgery, was recalled from Triple-A for Wednesday’s game.
In his lone start of 2024, he was vaporized by the Cincinnati Reds, giving up six hits, eight runs, and a home run in 3 2/3 innings. Now he has to try to find his stuff again against Harper and the Phillies? Good luck.
Ashby threw 82 pitches in that start with his sinker accounting for 48.1% of them and his changeup not far behind at 44.4%. He essentially doesn’t use any other pitches, and that should be just fine for Harper.
The Phillies star is mashing both pitches, as he has a run value of six against both, which is his highest off any pitch this season. He’s been particularly lethal against sinkers with a .421 average and .711 SLG. But Ashby won’t get any reprieve by going to his changeup, as Harper’s got a .613 SLG against that pitch.
It doesn’t hurt Harper’s cause that Ashby is a lefty either. He’s actually got a higher average against lefties (.274) than righties (.268).
Brewers vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 total bases
William Contreras Over 0.5 hits
Harper isn’t the only NL MVP candidate taking the field in this matchup, he’s not even the only one on his own team. Alec Bohm has been the perfect complement to Harper leading the team in hits (69) and total bases (112).
With Harper and Bohm poised to give Ashby all he can handle, Milwaukee’s own MVP candidate will need to step up. William Contreras leads the Brew Crew in hits (76) and total bases (117) and is cooking against two of Philly starter Aaron Nola’s top pitches. He’s batting better than .320 against both four-seamers and sinkers this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Phillies odds
Brewers vs Phillies live odds
Brewers vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 | Philadelphia -1.5
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +157 | Philadelphia -172
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Brewers vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies opened between a -172 and -200 moneyline favorite and remain there after beating Milwaukee in both the previous games in the series.
- Philadelphia is the best team in baseball this season with a 43-19 record and are 26-9 at home, but the Brewers aren’t far behind at 36-25.
- The Over/Under opened between 8.5 and 9 and hasn’t seen much movement. Some books are offering the Under 8.5 at plus-money.
- No team in the MLB has been a better Over bet than Milwaukee at 34-24-3, while the Phillies are just 27-31-4.
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Brewers vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 45 games (+21.30 Units / 39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Phillies
Brewers vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Aaron Ashby (0-1, 9.82 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (7-2, 3.03 ERA) |
Brewers vs Phillies latest injuries
Brewers vs Phillies weather
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