The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs will meet for the fifth time in four days this afternoon at Wrigley, with the division-leading visitors entering as slight -115 MLB betting favorites.
The winds are blowing out, which means starters Marcus Stroman and Dakota Hudson could have a long day in the wind tunnel on the north side. Can the pitchers keep the ball in the park, or will the heavy schedule work against the offenses?
Find out in my free MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Cubs on August 25.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Cards opened as short as -135, but Chicago gained some steam in the market, and now this is much closer to a pick‘em with the Cards sitting at -115. The winds are blowing out at Wrigley, so we’re seeing a climb in the total that opened at 9 and is sitting at 9.5 and some books hitting 10.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cardinals vs Cubs predictions
Picks made on 8/25/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cardinals vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Thursday, August 25, 2022
• First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, MARQ
Cardinals vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Dakota Hudson (6-6, 4.33 ERA): Hudson will be making just his fourth start in August as he missed a start to work on mechanical issues. He hasn’t recorded a quality start since July 6, and his xERA of 5.32 is nearly a full run over his true ERA. His WHIP of 1.46 is high thanks to a terrible 66/53 K/BB ratio.
THE BAT has Hudson ranked as the 192nd starting pitcher in baseball, and his baseball savant page has more blue than a clear sky. Opponents are hitting .316 off of Hudson’s primary offering — his sinker.
Marcus Stroman (3-5, 3.83 ERA): Stroman has put together a sneaky good season in 2022. He's been ever better of late with a 2.45 ERA over his last seven starts. He spent a month on the shelf with a right should issue but has been solid in his return despite a 1-0 record over those eight starts. He has seen the Cardinals twice this season and has allowed 12 runs over 10+ innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in Hudson's last four road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs
Cardinals vs Cubs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Cards and Cubs are likely sick of each other, having already played four games since Monday, including a doubleheader on Tuesday. Each team has won a blowout and a close game, but tonight’s line is the closest of the series.
The Cubs’ two wins in the series came against the two best St. Louis pitchers in Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas, and now they face arguably the worst Cardinal starter on the roster.
Hudson was skipped two starts ago because of “mechanical issues” and then gave up four runs over 4+ innings in his last turn versus Arizona. He sits in the bottom 1% in K rate and the bottom 4% in Whiff%. He doesn’t miss bats, and when opponents do square up the sinker pitcher, they have a 42.9% hard hit rate, which ranks in the bottom 14% of the league.
This pitching matchup favors the Cubs substantially, and early bettors picked up on this and moved the line from St. Louis -135 to -115.
Offensively, if the Cubs can get Willson Contreras back in the lineup, this line could swing the other way. The hard-hitting backstop has missed the last two days but has been on the bench, meaning there is a chance that he slides into the lineup today. If he starts, the line will move, but he will also be available as a pinch hitter later in the game if needed.
With the heavy schedule, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cards go with the weaker lineup today and give a veteran or two a day off. Nolan Arenado was ejected last night arguing balls and strikes and is a candidate. Paul Goldschmidt had the day off yesterday, and staggering his and Arenado’s absences would be smart with the heavy schedule and another 40 playoff-style games down the stretch.
Stroman will be the difference in this matchup, and the early market movement proves that. After the Cardinals tagged him for nine runs, which sent him to the IL, he’s come back stronger and has been pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA since. The difference between Stroman’s 6.7% BB% and Hudson’s 11% BB% is substantial and will create more traffic for the home side.
Prediction: Cubs moneyline (-105 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Early bettors who saw the wind blowing out at Wrigley were quick to hop on the Over 9 and are sitting with a +EV ticket heading into the matinee.
When the winds are blowing out at Wrigley, it’s one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball and is the reason some books don’t offer some markets. As of 9:30 a.m. ET, FanDuel still wasn’t offering a total market. That’s the Wrigley effect.
Between 9 and 9:45 a.m. ET, the total went from 9 to 10 at some books, and if the weather holds and both teams start strong lineups, this total could close closer to 10.5.
Ball Park Pal has Wrigley as the second-best hitter park on the slate today, while Rotogrinders’ weather expert, Kevin Roth, is calling for great home run conditions.
Both starting pitchers are predominantly groundball pitchers, but with Hudson’s control and contact issues coupled with the Cardinals’ success against Stroman, the bases could be busy this afternoon.
We’re also seeing two of the worst bullpens in baseball over the last 30 days. Each club has a WAR of 0.0 over the last 30 days, ranking in the Bottom 5 of the league. The Cubs are likely without co-closers Brandon Hughes (pitched in back-to-back games) and Rowan Wick (29 pitches last night), as well.
I’d like to see a lineup before I hit the Over 9.5, but if both teams go with their best today, this total could certainly close closer to 10.5
Prediction: Over 9.5 (-115 at bet365)
Best bet
There could be plenty of extra-base hits today, and with Hudson allowing a .800 OPS to right-hand hitters, Nico Hoerner player props are what I’m targeting.
Hoerner went 3 for 4 last night with three singles. He is the best sinker-hitting batter on the Cubs with a .395 AVG vs. Hudson’s primary offering.
He was riding an awful eight-game hitless streak entering last night, but this is still a young hitter who is slashing .291/.338/.408. He is a great contact hitter and matches up well vs. a pitcher who doesn’t miss bats.
Pick: Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at FanDuel)
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