Cardinals vs Dodgers Picks and Predictions: Bauer at Home Is Nearly Unhittable

Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer is enjoying pitching in his new home in Los Angeles, posting a 0.90 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP in three starts at Dodger Stadium this season.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
May 31, 2021 • 13:04 ET
Trevor Bauer Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Dodgers were streaking... and then ran straight into a wall in the form of the San Francisco Giants, losing three out of four games to their division rivals over the weekend. 

They’ll look to pick themselves up when they begin a series with the National League Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals and Game 1 has pitcher’s duel written all over it with Jack Flaherty toeing the rubber against Trevor Bauer. 

Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Dodgers on Monday, May 31, with first pitch scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET.

Cardinals vs Dodgers game info

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Monday, May 31, 2021
Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
TV: BS-MW, SN LA

Cardinals vs Dodgers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Cardinals vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jack Flaherty (8-1, 2.84 ERA): Flaherty is coming off his first rough outing of the season, getting tuned up by the White Sox for seven runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks in just 3 2-3 innings. But the Cardinals ace will look to bounce back against a Dodgers team he always enjoyed facing — Flaherty has a 1.08 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers.

Trevor Bauer (5-3, 2.03 ERA): Bauer didn’t have his best stuff last time out but was still able to grind his way through six innings against the Astros, giving up just two earned runs. Now he returns to Dodger Stadium, where he owns a 0.90 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP in three starts there this season.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cardinals: Andrew Miller RP (Out), Harrison Bader CF (Out), Paul DeJong SS (Out), Jordan Hicks RP (Out).
Dodgers: Mookie Betts RF (Questionable), Brusdar Graterol RP (Out), Corey Seager SS (Out), A.J. Pollock OF (Out), Corey Knebel RP (Out), Tommy Kahnle RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Cardinals and Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Dodgers.

Runline pick

It was a rough weekend for the Dodgers pitching staff, allowing 24 runs over three straight losses to the Giants heading into today, but Trevor Bauer will do his best to correct that.

As noted, the defending National League Cy Young winner sure has enjoyed his new digs at Dodger Stadium. The right-hander has allowed just two runs in three starts there this season and is limiting opponents to a ridiculous .116 batting average.

Bauer faces a Cardinals lineup that is top-heavy, led by the likes of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, but the rest of the lineup has generally struggled, hitting .221 against right-handers when playing on the road this season.

St. Louis counters Bauer with its own ace in Flaherty but the right-hander is coming off a rough outing and frankly, he was a little due for a stinker. He doesn’t have a great feel for his slider right now and is finding too much of the zone with his fastball.

As a result, his chase rate is very low and he is in the bottom third of the league when it comes to average exit velocity. That won’t play well against a deep Dodgers lineup that has Cody Bellinger back and ranks in the Top 10 in scoring, average, OPS, and home runs.

Unfortunately, books seem to realize this because there is no value in the Dodgers as -185 favorites, so we’ll have to take them on the runline instead. 

PREDICTION: Dodgers -1.5 (+115)

Over/Under pick

It shouldn’t be hard to figure out which way we are leaning when it comes to the total. We’ve already talked about how dominant Bauer has been at home and we don’t expect that to change here.

Even though the Cardinals are coming off a get-right series against the Diamondbacks, prior to that they averaged 2.33 runs per game in six contests against the White Sox and Cubs (good teams).

And while Flaherty might have been due to get knocked around a bit, he has done a decent job of keeping runners off the base paths this season with his 1.07 WHIP and a .201 opponent batting average. Plus, you can’t deny his strong history against L.A.

And if there has been a bit of a weakness to the LA lineup, it's that the Dodgers rank just 15th in batting average against right-handers over their last 14 games. Bet on pitching to be the story of this matchup and bet the Under.

PREDICTION: Under 7 (-110)

Cardinals vs Dodgers betting card

  • Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
  • Under 7 (-110)

Picks made on 5/31/2021 at 12:41 p.m. ET

MLB parlays

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Senior Betting Analyst

When his dreams of becoming the next Steve Nash died, all Andrew “Taco” Caley wanted to do was write about sports, something he’s been doing at Covers for more than a decade. A Journalism School grad from Holland College in Charlottetown, PEI, Andrew previously worked at The Chronicle Herald and Star Metro, but knew in his heart that his future lay in sports. He began at Covers as a news editor and has now done everything under the sun when it comes to content. His work has been seen on TSN, Sportsnet, VSiN, and CBS.

These days Andrew’s betting expertise is focused on his favorite teams – the Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He’s also an avid college football fan and bettor. He can’t be friends with you if you don’t appreciate a Service Academy Under. You can also call him Covers’ Sixth Man, as he regularly steps up to guest host Before You Bet and our MLB and NCAAF release shows.

The sportsbook where he does the bulk of his betting is bet365 thanks to its numerous prop betting options and competitive odds. His best advice? Find the balance between the numbers and what you see on the playing field. Then find the best price using multiple books. And don’t ask him where the nickname Taco comes from. It’s not an interesting story. Seriously.

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