Cardinals vs Dodgers NL Wild Card Picks and Predictions: L.A. Too Strong Behind Ace Scherzer

The 2020 World Series-winning Los Angeles Dodgers matched a franchise record in victories but they will have to get through a winner-take-all game first to advance through to the NLDS. 

The Dodgers' 106 wins weren't enough to capture a division title, so they will host the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL wild-card game on Wednesday night. Although Los Angeles is a massive favorite behind Cy Young contender Max Scherzer, the Cardinals — who went 22-7 in September to secure a spot — turn to a veteran arm with plenty of playoff experience in Adam Wainwright. 

Can St. Louis pull off the huge upset? 

Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Dodgers on October 6.

Cardinals vs Dodgers odds

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Cardinals vs Dodgers picks

• Dodgers (-215)
• Over 7.5 (-110)

Picks made on 10/4/2021 at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cardinals vs Dodgers game info

• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Wednesday, October 6, 2021
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS

Cardinals vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Adam Wainwright (17-7, 3.05 ERA): At 39-years-young, Wainwright had one of the best seasons of his career. The veteran right-hander recorded 18 quality starts in his last 22 outings and owns a 2.58 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over that stretch.

Max Scherzer (8-4, 2.76 ERA): Scherzer has been nearly unhittable in Dodger Blue. The right-hander has pitched to a 1.98 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .189 batting average in 11 starts since coming over from the Nationals. But he is in a mini-slump at the moment.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cardinals: Justin Miller RP (Out).
Dodgers: Max Muncy 1B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 meetings against the Dodgers. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Dodgers.

Cardinals vs Dodgers predictions

Dodgers (-215)

One of the biggest questions heading into the National League wild-card game is whether the Cardinals carry the momentum of their 17-game winning streak into the postseason? (They went 19-1 down the stretch before closing the season with meaningless back-to-back losses to the Cubs).

The Cardinals saw their offense explode in the final month of the season, helping the team go a ridiculous 22-7 in September. But if there's anyone who can cool off the white-hot Redbirds, it’s Scherzer.

Now, Mad Max in is a bit of a slump, allowing 10 runs on 17 hits in 10 1-3 innings pitched over his last two starts against the Padres and Rockies. But Scherzer has been an excellent postseason performer over the years and will be primed to bounce back. 

On top of that, his numbers prior to those two starts were borderline unbelievable. Scherzer posted a 0.78 ERA and limited batters to a .150 batting average while striking out 12.3 batters per nine innings in his first nine starts with L.A. 

That includes a game against St. Louis back on September 6, where he allowed just one unearned run on six hits while striking out 13 in eight innings. And while the Cardinals had an incredible hot streak, they ranked 21st in MLB in OPS when it came to facing right-handers this season.

Wainwright has been outstanding this season, too, but the Dodgers present a difficult task. They have arguably the deepest and most talented lineup in the majors and should be able to absorb the loss of Max Muncy if he's unable to go. And the Top 4 in their lineup (Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, and Justin Turner) combine to hit .369 off Wainwright. 

I think the Dodgers’ talent prevails and they win this game, but anything Over -200 is terrible value against a hot and scrappy Cardinals team. Maybe try to extract some more value by betting the Dodgers on the five-inning run line or the Cardinals on an alternate run line (-115 odds).

Over 7.5 (-110)

A total of 7.5 is expected when you have Wainwright and Scherzer facing off and pitching the way they've been. And while a 3-2 game is certainly in the cards for this wild-card showdown, we’ll have to lean to the Over.

Though Scherzer has looked unhittable at times, he hasn’t looked great in his last two starts and the Cardinals are the type of team that will take advantage of mistakes. And of course, their bats came alive in September, plating 5.4 runs per game. 

Meanwhile, the deep Dodgers lineup averaged 5.1 runs all season long and come into this game scorching at the plate, scoring at least eight runs in each of their last five contests.

I’m not saying they get to that number but they are more than capable of getting a few knocks off Wainwright, whose expected opponent batting average is below league average. This number is just low enough to like the Over.

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