This interleague series concludes this afternoon with the New York Yankees hosting the St. Louis Cardinals at Yankee Stadium.
My Cardinals vs. Yankees predictions are optimistic on the home side, primarily due to the pitching matchup. Read on for my MLB picks for Sunday, September 1.
Cardinals vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Yankees -1.5 (+106 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The St. Louis Cardinals hand the ball to RHP Miles Mikolas today, and he should be a good fade candidate. Through 27 starts this season, Mikolas is 8-10 with a fade-worthy 5.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as the righty ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, southpaw Nestor Cortes takes the mound for the New York Yankees.
Cortes outranks Mikolas in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, and strikeout rate. The pitching advantage doesn’t stop there, considering New York’s bullpen outranks St. Louis’ in ERA.
With that said, the biggest advantage for the Yankees in this matchup is the difference in hitting. New York paces the Cardinals in runs scored per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs, and they should win decisively here.
Aaron Judge pick: Judgment day
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 home runs (+195 at DraftKings)
My analysis
It's not a hot take to say Aaron Judge is the most lethal home-run hitter of this generation. He has cleared the fence seven times over the past 11 games, and we shouldn't expect anything different this afternoon.
Mikolas ranks in the 30th percentile in hard-hit rate, which is a recipe for disaster against someone of Judge’s power, and I'll back the best pure hitter in baseball in that market.
Cardinals vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees -1.5
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 home runs
Juan Soto Over 0.5 hits
Another New York hitter to back is Juan Soto, who ranks in the 98th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. He's recorded six hits over his past seven games.
This success is likely to continue against Mikolas, a pitcher whom Soto boasts a .316 BA against through 21 career plate appearances.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Yankees odds
Cardinals vs Yankees live odds
Cardinals vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis +176 | New York -210
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-118) | New York -1.5 (-102)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Cardinals vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- New York opened as a -210 favorite and has since been bet down to -200.
- This line movement doesn’t scare me off the Yankees, which I attribute to the high price tag.
- The total opened at nine and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- I believe it is more likely that this total moves to 9.5 rather than 8.5, given that both teams rank in the top half of the league in hits per game, BA, and OBP.
Cardinals vs Yankees trend
Each of New York’s past nine wins have come by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Yankees.
Cardinals vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Midwest, YES |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Miles Mikolas (8-10, 5.23 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes Jr. (8-10, 3.89 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Yankees latest injuries
Cardinals vs Yankees weather
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