Pool B hosts Japan take on the Chinese National Team on Thursday morning Eastern, in a game where the spread resembles more of a college football matchup than a senior-level baseball matchup.
The Japanese are -9.5 run-line favorites vs. arguably the worst roster in the tournament and with Shohei Ohtani getting the ball (and hitting), I don’t think it’s wrong to take the favorites on the spread — even with the tax.
Find out where my best bets lie in this WBC matchup between China vs. Japan.
China vs Japan odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under
| China | Japan | |
|---|---|---|
| +3,300 | Moneyline | -50,000 |
| +9.5 (+125) | Run line | -9.5 (-155) |
| Over 11.5 (-125) | Total | Under 11.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 8, 2023.
China vs Japan picks and predictions
It’s not often I handicap a baseball game with a run line of 9.5 runs, but that’s what we get when one of the best (Japan) faces the lowest-ranked (WBSC rankings) team in the tournament at home in front of a massive crowd at the Tokyo Dome. Japan is the only country to win multiple WBC titles and there's an argument that this year’s roster is the best it's ever had.
Mercy rules do apply here, but that’s likely the reason we’re seeing Japan -9.5 and not -10.5. The game will be called if any team leads by 15 or more runs after five innings or 10-plus runs after seven innings.
This is a meeting of the Olympic-gold-winning Japanese, who have added elite MLB talent in Shohei Ohtani and Yu Darvish, some other MLB experience in Lars Notbaar and Masatake Yoshida, as well as the Nippon Professional Baseball’s (NPB) best. The NPB is the No. 2 professional baseball league in the world and some of that talent could easily make MLB rosters.
Munetake Murakami will likely become a household name. All he did last year was break the league’s home run record (56) which had sat for 58 years. He also won the triple crown. The 23-year-old won’t be eligible to head stateside for a couple more years but this is a special talent that owns .988 OPS over his first five years in the low-scoring league.
One of the main reasons I think the home team can cover this massive spread is because of the schedule. China may use its weaker arms today, as it plays the Czech Republic 15 hours after this game and needs that win, as losing could open the door for relegation. This is a punted game for the Chinese and there's no reason to burn their good arms with a winnable game on deck the following day.
It’s not fair when the Chinese have to face Shohei Ohtani, who has been confirmed as the starting pitcher and expects to hit as well.
China has been dormant as a senior team since 2019, when it finished fourth in the Asian Games and lost 10-0 to Taiwan in the bronze-medal game. In that tournament, Japan won 17-2 vs. China in pool play with a much weaker roster.
The Chinese lack talent on offense and have no position players in any MLB system. Their best hitter is Yosuke Masago, who apparently has some affiliation with the NPB, but has no reference page leading me to think he plays on a farm/developmental team at best.
I don't see the Chinese scoring more than one run today. A 10-run mercy is very probable and if the Chinese punt this game and save their arms, Japan could walk away with a 15-plus run victory in five innings.
Alan Carter (Angels) is the best player the Chinese have but the starting pitcher could be held out until Friday vs. the Czech Republic. He throws in the upper 90s with his fastball but after him, the talent falls off a cliff.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m taking Japan -9.5 at some heavy odds of -155 and wouldn’t complain if you hit the Japan team total Over 10.5 at -139. The possibility of a 10-0 win is worth the extra juice in what should be the most one-sided game of the tournament.
My best bet: Japan -9.5 (-155 at bet365)
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China vs Japan moneyline analysis
Japan opened as a cool -50,000 on the moneyline, which is 99.8% probable to win. With Shohei Ohtani starting and likely DH’ing, this could be one of the most one-sided games of the WBC.
In the 2017 WBC, there were four games that had a double-digit victor and one of those was an 11-0 Australian win over China in the opening round.
Since that tournament, where Japan beat China 7-2, the Japanese have added more talent to their roster while the Chinese National Team has not been very busy with competitive baseball. Considering only one Chinese player is in the MLB system, none are in the NPB system, and one is in the KBO, the dogs are in trouble in their opener.
If Alan Carter doesn’t pitch today for China, it could get ugly early. Carter is in the Angels’ system and had an insane 14.7 K/9 at Lee University, which is a D-2 school in Tennessee. That’s the underdog’s best chance at keeping the Japanese bats at bay but the Chinese might save him for the Czech Republic the following game with qualification at stake.
I don’t see the Japanese run line moving to -10.5 thanks to the mercy rules but the -9.5 at -155 could shorten up — especially if Carter isn’t announced as the starter.
China vs Japan Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 11.5 (-125 to the Over). This will be the third game played in the Tokyo Dome, which is a massive 55,000-person stadium that measures 325 down the lines and 400 feet to straight-away center. It’s a FieldTurf field that could slow down some ground balls which would likely hurt the Chinese more than Japan, which has exponentially more power.
Ohtani is going to mow down the Chinese batters and will likely do it efficiently. He’ll have a 65-pitch limit in the opening round but could easily get 15 outs with that leash vs. non-professional hitters.
I’d rather take Japan on the team total Over 11.5 at -105 than the full-game Over 11.5 at -125 as there’s a very good chance China goes scoreless in this contest. China's current team total of 0.5 is paying +330 for the Over.
China vs Japan game info
| Location: | Tokyo Dome, Tokyo, Japan |
| Date: | Thursday, March 9, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 5:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1, Sportsnet One |
China vs Japan starting pitchers
China starting pitcher: TBA
Shohei Ohtani: He's arguably the best baseball player in the world and will get to pitch and hit vs. possibly the worst roster in the tournament. Ohtani has one Spring start under his belt, where he threw 2.1 innings of shutout ball and struck out two batters. He'll have a 65-pitch limit. I haven't seen any WBC MVP odds, but if I were to make them, Ohtani would easily be the betting favorite. Good luck China.
