The Chicago Cubs make a rare trip to Toronto for a weekend series with the Blue Jays in what should intriguing interleague matchup where both teams are in the thick of a postseason reason. Friday night’s opener sees the Cubs hand the ball to Javier Assad, while the Blue Jays will counter with Jose Berrios.
The Blue Jays have been trending toward the Under lately because of their outstanding pitching and offensive woes. Berrios has been one of their most effective pitchers this year, so are we looking at another low-scoring contest for Toronto tonight?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Blue Jays.
Cubs vs Blue Jays odds
Cubs vs Blue Jays predictions
More than ever this season, the Toronto Blue Jays pitching has been outstanding and the lineup has been a disappointment.
As a result, the Under is 13-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 14 games. And with a total of 9 for Friday night’s opener, I’m betting that it happens again.
Let’s start with the outstanding pitching. Jose Berrios has been a big part of that, as the right-hander has pitched to a 2.78 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .230 batting average over his last 21 starts. He’s also been great at home this season, boasting a 2.72 ERA in 10 starts at the Rogers Centre.
The Chicago Cubs are tough on right-handers but Berrios has quality starts this season against the Braves, Yankees, Astros, Padres, and Angels. The right-hander will be supported by a very good Blue Jays bullpen that ranks seventh in xFIP and fourth in strikeouts per nine innings.
The other reason for the Toronto Unders is that despite some decent overall numbers, the Blue Jays seemingly can’t ever get that clutch hit. They rank just 25th in batting average and 28th in OPS with runners in scoring position this season.
Tonight they’ll face Javier Assad, who is mostly used as the Cubs' long relief man and is used for spot starts when needed. He’s also been very effective lately, pitching to a 1.04 ERA and limiting opponents to a .163 over his last 10 appearances. Assad is probably good for three to five innings before handing the ball off to a solid Cubs bullpen that ranks 14th in xFIP.
With Berrios on the bump and a total of 9, the Under is the way to go once again.
My best bet: Under 9 (-107 at SIA)
Cubs vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Under 9.5
Under 0.5 hits
Bellinger Over 1.5 TB
Starting off by bumping our original best bet of Under 9 to Under 9.5, we'll fade Dansby Swanson at the plate as well. The Cubs shortstop has just two hits in his last 22 plate appearances, so let’s add him to go hitless in this matchup.
We'll close this SGP parlay by backing the red-hot Cody Bellinger. The Cubs outfielder has regained his MVP form and is hitting a ridiculous .390 with a 1.107 OPS since coming out of the All-Star break. He’s also gone Over 1.5 total bases 17 times in his last 26 games.
If all three of these hit, we walk away with a +1,000 payday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cubs vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as -160 home favorites but it’s the Cubs who have seen the early money, as Toronto has moved down to the -150 range. Despite their struggles to score with runners in scoring position, I think there is some value with the Jays here.
Toronto has a big edge when it comes to starting pitching in this matchup. Berrios has been a standout for most of the season and he’s been even better lately. The right-hander owns a 2.31 ERA with a 3.35 FIP over his last six starts.
And while Assad has been reliable for the Cubbies recently, he could be in for possible regression. His FIP is a much higher 4.51 and he has a 5.40 ERA as a starter.
Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 9.5 and was almost immediately bet down to 9. But as I broke down above, I still think there is plenty of value on the Under at the current number.
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays have hit the Under on the full game total in 32 of their last 53 games at home for +13.50 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Blue Jays
Cubs vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, August 11, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Javier Assad (1-2, 3.35 ERA): Assad has been the Cubs' long man out of the bullpen most of the year. This will be the right-hander’s third start of the season, and he’s allowed three earned runs over his last 26 innings pitched.
Jose Berrios (9-7, 3.38 ERA): Berrios has been one of the more reliable starters in the American League all season. He also loves pitching at the Rogers Centre and has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts there.
