Hey, Toronto Blue Jays fans and backers, have your hearts restarted yet? The Jays were nearing a fourth consecutive embarrassing loss in last night’s game against the Chicago Cubs before a late-inning comeback brought an end to their slide.
Toronto will try to carry that momentum into tonight’s game when they dig in against former Blue Jay Marcus Stroman who makes his first career start at Rogers Centre as an opponent. Can the Jays cash as big favorites as they counter with Kevin Gausman?
Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Blue Jays on Tuesday, August 30.
Cubs vs Blue Jays odds
Live odds courtesy of FanDuel on August 30, 2022.
The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as big -225 favorites but the Cubs have seen some early money, moving the line down to Toronto -215. The total hit the board at 8. The Under saw some early action and briefly moved the number to 7.5 before bouncing back to 8.
Be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cubs vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 8/30/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cubs vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, August 30, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, Marquee Sports Network
Cubs vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Marcus Stroman (3-6, 4.10 ERA): Stroman has been mostly solid in the second half of the season, pitching to a 2.50 ERA over six starts before getting roughed up by the Cardinals for five runs on 11 hits over five innings his last time out.
Kevin Gausman (9-9, 3.15 ERA): Gausman has had an interesting month of August. In three starts against the Rays, Twins, and Yankees he allowed a total of zero runs on 11 hits. But in two starts against the Guardians and Red Sox, he gave up nine runs on 18 hits.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 30-14 in the Blue Jays' last 44 games when following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Blue Jays
Cubs vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays needed that win, badly. They were able to gut out a victory last night, but can they carry that momentum over into tonight’s matchup against the Cubs?
Well, that depends on what version of Kevin Gausman they'll get tonight. The one that stymied the Rays, Yankees, and Twins? Or the guy who got hit around the park by the Guardians and Red Sox.
While Gausman’s 2.01 FIP indicates he’s been a little unlucky this season, he's been routinely giving up hits this season, as evidenced by his .249 expected batting average. And seeing how Chicago handled the bats against Jose Berrios yesterday could give us some insight today.
The Cubbies didn't hit Berrios overly hard, but the team had a smart approach at the plate, taking what was given to them, going the other way and in the end, tagged Berrios for four runs on 10 hits. We could certainly see more of the same tonight with Gausman on the mound and a Cubs team that does a decent job against right-handers.
Countering Gausman is Marcus Stroman, who is making his first start at the Rogers Centre as a visitor. While Stroman has been inconsistent at times this season, he has pitched much better in the second half and has a 3.42 ERA in his career at the Rogers Centre. More importantly, he has the tools to be successful in this matchup.
Toronto struggled early yesterday against Cubs starter Javier Assad. The rookie was making just his second career start but induced the Jays into a lot of soft contact and ground balls thanks to his cutter and sinker. Stroman is basically a better version of that and has one of the highest ground rates in baseball in the second half of the season.
Stroman is also a guy who plays with an extremely large and permanent chip on his shoulder, and you know he is dying to prove the Jays made a mistake by moving on from him.
This number is just too high to back what has been an inconsistent Blue Jays team for basically the last month. With this starting pitching matchup, take a stab on the Cubbies as underdogs.
Prediction: Cubs moneyline (+185 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, we are leaning towards the Over for many of the same reasons to like the Cubs.
For starters, we outlined how the Cubs' offense can be successful against Gausman in this matchup, in addition, they rank 14th in batting average and 13th in OPS when facing right-handed hurlers this season.
On the other side, even though we are confident Stroman is motivated to put on a strong performance tonight, he averages just under 5.5 innings per start this season, which means more work for a Cubs bullpen that gave up all five runs to the Jays yesterday and ranks 24th in ERA and 21st in opponent batting average.
This Blue Jays lineup certainly feels like it is all or nothing at times, but there is no denying they can explode at any time. Expect them to contribute enough to the scoreline to send this game Over the total.
Prediction: Over 8 (+100 at DraftKings)
Best bet
While the value is with the Cubs on the moneyline tonight, their bullpen can always give you some cause for concern. So, let’s take them out of the equation and take the Cubbies in the first five innings.
We are still getting plus money on this bet and even if the Cubs struggle against Gausman, we are giving ourselves an out by backing what should be a strongly motivated Marcus Stroman.
As noted, he does a great job of inducing ground balls, something the Jays have been doing far too much lately. They have the fourth highest ground ball rate in the month of August only behind the Rockies, Tigers, and Pirates.
Pick: Cubs first five innings +0.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
