With the trade deadline set to expire today at 6 pm ET, the Chicago Cubs have more to lose than the St. Louis Cardinals ahead of today’s series opener.
There's a possibility that both Ian Happ and Wilson Contreras could be heading elsewhere, which would be a huge blow to the Chicago offense in a tough matchup vs. Adam Wainwright. Find out what might be missing in the betting line in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Cardinals.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Cardinals opened as -170 home favorites and moved slightly overnight to -175. The total sits at 8.0 and leans to the Over. This will be the ninth meeting since June 2 with the series split 4-4. Keegan Thompson was a +100 home dog in his last meeting vs. St. Louis (June 2) and Adam Wainwright was a -136 road favorite in his last meeting with the Cubs (June 5).
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cubs vs Cardinals predictions
- Prediction: Cardinals -1.5 (+125)
- Prediction: Cubs TT Under 3.5 (-115)
- Best bet: Wainwright Over 18.5 total outs (-110)
Picks made on 8/02/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cubs vs Cardinals game info
• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Tuesday, August 2, 2022
• First pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
• TV: Marquee Sports Network, Bally Sports Midwest
Cubs vs Cardinals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Keegan Thompson (8-4, 3.16 ERA): Since joining the rotation, Thompson has a 3.90 ERA over 13 starts (62 1-3 innings) with 57 strikeouts and 21 walks. He’s coming off a season-high seven innings of work where he stymied a weak Pittsburgh lineup. It was also his second start where he allowed zero free passes. The Cardinals tagged Thompson for three runs on five hits (three walks) back in June. He gets hit much harder on the road (PIT, LAD, NYY, BAL, CWS, and SD) as teams are slashing .250/.331/.475 vs. the right-hander.
Adam Wainwright (7-8, 3.28 ERA): The 40-year-old Wainwright has been an anchor for an injured St. Louis rotation all season. He also enters tonight in great form with a 3.86 ERA over his last seven games, which include legit offenses in Toronto, Cincinnati at Great American Ballpark, the Dodgers, and Philadelphia (x2). Wainwright has no issues getting deep as he is not a high strikeout pitcher. He went seven innings in a 5-3 win over the Cubs in Chicago in early June.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in St. Louis. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals
Cubs vs Cardinals picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
With the trade deadline approaching later tonight, the Chicago Cubs could be without their No. 2 and 3 hitters in Ian Happ and Wilson Contreras — who have been the speculation of a plethora of trade rumors.
If both or even just one of these middle-of-the-order hitters were to be traded today, they would miss tonight and the line would certainly get shorter for the Cardinals. With the expanded Wild Card, more teams are looking to acquire talent, and Happ and Contreras are two of the biggest bats still available. I’d be shocked if either of these players stayed put today.
The potential loss to either Happ or Contreras also has another ripple effect. Yan Gomes usually catches Keegan Thompson with Contreras at DH. Having Gomes and another bench bat in the lineup makes this a much weaker lineup for Chicago.
Blue Jays have been looking for big pen help, a starter and a lefty bat. Ian Happ would fit their hitting need, but he’s getting huge interest. Padres, Brewers and perhaps Braves are among others Happ would help.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 31, 2022
Thompson is also a converted reliever who has recorded 18 outs in just four of his 13 starts. The Cubs shipped off solid reliever Scott Effros to the Yankees and will be without his services. He currently leads all Chicago relievers in innings pitched and was a big part of the Cubs’ bullpen.
St. Louis just wrapped up a 10-day road trip and return home for the first time since the All-Star break and have the confidence of the front office that is adding pieces.
Finally, even if Contreras and Happ do stay put, Chicago will likely keep them out of the lineup just in case a late trade is made.
With a potentially neutered Cubbies' offense combined with a starter who could give way to a bullpen that just lost its most reliable arm, the Cardinals are looking like a great play today.
Prediction: Cardinals -1.5 (+125 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
It’s tough to get excited about an Over 8.0 if Chicago is missing two of its best bats. Happ’s potential departure makes the Cubs' defense better in the outfield as he owns a -0.9 Def ranking on Fangraphs when playing leftfield.
Despite the lean, I wouldn’t hit this Under unless it moved 8.5. The St. Louis offense is locked in and has scored at least five runs in six of its last eight games, with Paul Goldschmidt pushing for an NL MVP bid. "Goldy" has also taken Thompson yard twice in just eight at bats.
Busch Stadium will be scorching hot with the temperature expected to hit 99 degrees with 35% humidity. Fourteen mph winds will also be present but seem to be blowing from right to left field. Thompson’s 26.9% flyball rate is 3% above the league average and his expected metrics indicate a rise could be coming in his 3.16 ERA.
THE BAT X has Thompson projected for just 4.89 innings pitched and 82 total pitches. The Chicago bullpen could be asked to get 13 outs without one of its best arms in Effros, which spells bad news for a pen that sits in the Bottom 10 in the league in ERA.
There are some good arguments on both sides of this total and I’d likely only hit this Under if the total moved to 8.5. Chicago's team total Under 3.5 (-115) seems like the best play here and will likely move once the lineups are released.
Prediction: Cubs team total Under 3.5 (-115 at bet365)
Best bet
Adam Wainwright could be facing a Chicago lineup without its No. 2 and 3 hitters in Happ and Contreras. The 40-year-old right-hander has had no issues getting deep despite his age, and is coming off a 21-out performance against the Jays in Toronto. He needed just 99 pitches to get through seven innings of work, but had topped 100 pitches in six straight starts prior to his last start and in eight of his previous nine turns. His leash is long.
This certainly looks like a pair of teammates who might not see each other in the clubhouse come Wednesday.
Willson Contreras and Ian Happ embrace after today's Cubs win. pic.twitter.com/sR4L8KT2P1
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) July 26, 2022
Wainwright needed 101 pitches to record 21 outs in a meeting vs. the Cubs in early June. He allowed a high number of hits (nine) but was still efficient while recording zero double plays.
THE BAT X has him projected for 102 pitches and 19.37 total outs, with his total out market sitting at 18.5 and paying -110 to the Over. That gives bettors a full out worth of value. If the Cubs do scratch Happ and Contreras, this total will certainly climb as other books are already as short as -127 for the Over 18.5 total outs.
Adam Wainwright Prop Pick: Over 18.5 total outs (-110)
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