Cubs vs Diamondbacks Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Gurriel Hitting Fast and Slow

In what amounts to a massive game for both teams, the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks finish off a series tonight on Sunday Night Baseball.

After a 13-inning classic last night that saw the D-Backs edge out the Cubs by a run, the pair will enter this evening separated by just a half-game in the National League Wild Card race. It's a race that has got tightly packed down the stretch, with five teams vying for three spots separated by 2.5 games entirely. The MLB odds indicate this game will be close too, as the Cubs are only slight road favorites.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks on Sunday, September 17.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds

Cubs vs Diamondbacks predictions

The Diamondbacks will be eying the sweep tonight. Such a feat would be a significant accomplishment, given the aforementioned playoff chase they find themselves in. Each of these teams knows the value of this one in detail. With so much at stake, I'm finding it difficult to separate the two teams. 

As of publication, the public illustrates a dilemma similar to mine. According to our Covers matchup page, the Cubs collected 65% of the bets. It makes sense, given its perceived advantage on the mound. However, I'm looking elsewhere, as there's better value. For me, it comes in the MLB player props market. I'm targeting Lourdes Gurriel Jr. there for my best bet. 

Gurriel has been smoking in this series. Last night, it was the volume. He had three hits in five at-bats with three RBIs. The night before it was power, as he hit a three-run home run that gave Arizona a lead it would never lose. I want to encompass all those things in my best bet tonight, so I'm playing him to go Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs. You can find it at DraftKings for the price of -155. I'm also placing a unit on an RBI for Gurriel at +140. 

Sometimes, the best bet you can make in baseball requires swallowing juice. I firmly believe that value is value, and that's the case here. The implied probability of this number is just over 60%. The actual likelihood is closer to 65%. That firm edge is easily the best bet in this matchup. 

What's made Cubs starter Jordan Wicks so effective this season is his changeup. It has produced a batting average of .125, a run value of -5, and a whiff rate of 33%. That's an elongated way to say it's been a nasty pitch for the young hurler. But in this matchup, he may struggle.

Gurriel is the best changeup hitter in the Arizona lineup, and it's not particularly close. He's posted a team-leading +4 run value against it, a batting average that is the third-best against it. Along with that, he ranks inside the Top 3 against it. He can have some success here because Wicks doesn't trust his fastball. 

Unlike the changeup, the fastball has been a rough pitch for Wicks. Batters are hitting just over .350 against it this season and have posted a hard-hit rate of nearly 45% against it. If Wicks decides to lean on it in this matchup, the way Gurriel has been seeing the ball lately, it's hard to think he doesn't smash it. However, I expect the exact heavy dosage change, and I hope Gurriel will take advantage of that.

The matchup here is just too good. Gurriel has eclipsed this number in seven of his last 10 appearances. Now he gets a young pitcher due for some regression in throwing his preferred pitch.

Gurriel could clear this on hits alone. However, if he doesn't, I like his chances to collect an RBI, as there are two other hitters around him with favorable splits against the changeup and success against lefties. 

My best bet: Gurriel Over 1.5 Hits + RBIs + Runs (-155 at DraftKings)

Cubs vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to get a hit

Run scored in first inning

Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases

+370 at DraftKings

Unfortunately, DraftKings doesn't allow you to put a Hits + RBIs + Runs play into your parlays. Because of that, I have opted to keep things simple and play him to get a hit. I paired them with two other plays for our best bet.

First up is a run scored in the first inning. In some ways, this is just a fade of D-backs starter Ryne Nelson. He's allowed a run in the first inning in three of his last four starts. However, there's been a run scored in the first inning in each of the first two games of this series. Here's to making it three in a row. 

We're picking on Nelson again with our last leg of Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases. The righty is a fastball-heavy pitcher, and it's a pitch that opponents have slugged .570 against. Bellinger leads all Cubs in hard-hit rate against the four-seam fastball. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I lean to the Cubs here, but it certainly isn't with tons of conviction. 

There's likely some regression due for Wicks, it's just a matter of when. Arizona has been average across the board against left-handed pitching. As discussed above, there's a decent amount of good hitting against the changeup in this lineup, a big plus against Wicks.

However, after an emotional win last night, there may be some flatness tonight. Another thing to consider is just how awful Nelson has been. He's given up six or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. The lone appearance in which he didn't allow six or more runs in that stretch came against this same Cubs team. However, believing such luck will be afforded him a second time here isn't easy. 

My projections point to the Over here. There are a few 9s out there, and that's what I played a unit on with my projection of a flat 10 in mind. I've already mentioned the reasoning behind this above.

We're banking on at least some of Wicks' regression to happen. Additionally, I think Nelson will continue to struggle. The Diamondbacks won the first two games of this series, and both went Over, making the stretch of the last 10 meetings between the pair an even 5-5 to the Over. 

Trend to know

The Chicago Cubs have hit the first Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 53 games (+10.93 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks

Cubs vs Diamondbacks game info

Starting pitchers

Jordan Wicks (3-0, 1.99 ERA): We haven't seen a ton from the young lefty who was called up for his first major league start in July, but what's been provided has been impressive. Wicks has gone at least five innings in all four starts, surrendering a max of two earned runs (San Francisco Giants). His changeup, most notably, has produced an impressive .125 batting average against opposing hitters. Wicks comes into this one off a six-inning appearance against the Colorado Rockies, where he allowed just one earned run.

Ryne Nelson (7-8, 5.53 ERA): After a sparkling season a year ago, Nelson has seen some regression. His barrel and hard-hit rates are all near the bottom of the league. Along with that, he's struggling to make batters swing and miss with a whiff ranking in the Bottom 8% of baseball. He enters today with an expected ERA of 5.46. His last showing against the Cubs was at the beginning of the month. It was the lone bright spot for him in his previous four games. In three of those, he gave up six earned runs in each appearance. Against the Cubs? One earned run in just over five innings of work.

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