The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs open up a three-game series in Flushing on Monday night.
New York is currently in a hotly contested race for the NL East. It is 1.5 games ahead in the division and has won six of its last ten. Chicago has entered another rough patch of its season, going 3-7 in its last ten games, and losing four of its previous five.
Who gets the first win of this series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Cubs.
Cubs vs Mets best odds
Cubs vs Mets picks and predictions
Today's pitching matchup pits an unknown against one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball this season. The mystery is Chicago's Javier Assad — who has pitched just 15 innings this season — and the proven consistent commodity is Chris Bassitt of the Mets. With that said, I'm going to center our best bet handicap around someone we can trust.
The Cubs won't score two runs in the first five innings today. We have plenty of data on our side to back that up, and Chicago looks like a team that wants the season to end. It has lost four of its last five games, and in three of those losses, it failed to score over two runs in the first five innings. This is a better way of backing the Cubs than paying the massive price on the Mets.
Beyond simply the way they've trended this month, Chicago has a real matchup problem today. It is a team that hits offspeed pitches like the sinker quite well — with several batters in its lineup that hit over .300 against it — although it'll be missing its best option in Nico Hoerner. That happens to be Bassitt's most common pitch. However, the problem for the Cubs is that he happens to throw one of the best sinkers in baseball. On that pitch alone he's posted a negative -15 run value — good for best in the league.
The trouble pitch for Bassitt has been the other off-speed pitch — his slider — which has quickly produced the highest run value of any pitch in his arsenal. Additionally, it's usually the first pitch he struggles with when he has a lousy outing. Luckily for him, it's also the worst pitch for this Cubbies lineup. Out of the four significant pitches we have data on, they have the lowest slugging, hard-hit, and batting average against it, with an average of around .220.
This number has a bit of juice, but my projections still see value. They price it at around -160. The human element of it makes me like it even more. The Cubs are lifeless for the moment and look ready to get this season over with. Let's take advantage of that.
My best bet: Cubs first five innings team total Under 1.5 (-130 at DraftKings)
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Cubs vs Mets betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
There's not much value in this game tonight. I want to find a way to back the Cubs — and if Nico Hoerner were in the lineup for the reasons mentioned above — I'd be more inclined to do so. However, Chicago resembles a team ready for things to be over, making it an almost impossible wager.
My projections say the Cubs should be looked at any price north of +220. That's certainly attractive when there are prices close to +250 widely available. However, the pitching matchup gets me to where I want to stay away.
We've already mentioned why I expect Bassitt to have some success here. The short version is that the Cubs hit their best pitch well and their worst pitch poorly. That doesn't typically spell success. Assad is relatively new to the majors, and we don't have much data on him. However, he does an excellent job of avoiding hard contact and plays a game where he wants to induce the ground ball.
As I've talked about several times this season, that's a pitcher that the Mets usually have success against. They don't hit many hard-hit balls, but they have an uncanny ability to find holes in the defense on ground balls.
It's a firm stay away for me on the side tonight. My projections say to play the Cubs, but the human element in me can't get there.
Over/Under analysis
I feel much more comfortable playing the Under here and likely will.
The angle of Bassitt shutting down the Cubs hitters is enough for me to want to side with the Under here. The Mets may have their way with Assad because he is due for regression, and they have a favorable matchup against them. However, I don't expect that alone to be enough.
My projections see this one going Under around 60% of the time, so that's a sizable edge for us on the current number.
Winds will be blowing out to left-field tonight, and according to the historical data of BallParkPal, that typically reduces the number of runs by about 20%. This appears to be a sleepy game that the Mets control throughout and coast to a finish. The Trends and handicap both point to the Under.
Cubs vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Monday, September 12, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Marquee, SNY
Starting pitchers
Javier Assad (0-1, 2.93 ERA): Javier Assad was called up to the Cubs earlier this year and has seen 15 innings of action. There's not a lot there to take away quite yet. However, one of the biggest things that jump out is an xERA over four. That suggests that some negative regression should come against him as we finish the season.
Chris Bassitt (13-7, 3.24 ERA): Bassitt has had a fantastic season for the Mets. He's approached elite levels when it comes to avoiding hard contact. His barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity all rank in the Top 15% of the league for starting pitchers. He combines that with an average K rate and a strong ball-to-strike ratio. This combination of attributes gives him few holes in his game overall. September has been great for Bassitt, making two starts and posting an ERA of just over two.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets
