The San Diego Padres don’t have to wait long for the chance to exact some revenge against the Chicago Cubs, who swept them away at Wrigley Field just last week. The two National League foes start up another three-game set, this time at Petco Park.
Game 1 will see the Cubs’ Adbert Alzolay toe the rubber against the Padres’ Ryan Weathers. So, will the Padres respond, or do the Cubbies have value as a betting underdog?
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Padres Monday, June 7, with first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET.
Cubs vs Padres game info
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Monday, June 7, 2021
• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Cubs vs Padres odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonAs of 7 p.m. ET, San Diego is a -132 favorite at TwinSpires, after opening -122 and making a stop at -127. Moneyline ticket count is running 2/1 and moneyline cash just beyond 3/1 on the Padres. The total moved from 7.5 to 8, with 54 percent of tickets/60 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameCubs vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Adbert Alzolay (4-4, 3.62 ERA): The 26-year-old Alzolay has been a real boon for the Cubbies rotation. The right-hander uses mostly a fastball-slider combo and it has been for effective results recently. Alzolay is in a groove right now, pitching to a 1.53 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and has struck out 19 batters in 17 2-3 innings over his last three starts.
Ryan Weathers (2-2, 2.06 ERA): The Padres counter with rookie Ryan Weathers. The right-hander has sometimes been used behind an opener but will make his fifth consecutive start. That said, he’s only pitched more than four innings just twice this season and while he has some solid numbers, some advanced stats don’t look as good.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cubs: Javier Baez SS (Questionable), Joc Pederson LF (Questionable), Nico Hoerner 2B (Out), Jonathan Holder RP (Out), Rowan Wick RP (Out), Justin Steele RP (Out), Alec Mills RP (Out).
Padres: Trent Grisham OF (Out), Drew Pomeranz RP (Out), Austin Nola C (Out), Matt Strahm RP (Out), Javy Guerra RP (Out), Dan Altavilla RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Cubs’ last seven games as an underdog and 4-0-1 in the last five meetings between the Cubs and Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Padres.
Moneyline pick
The Cubs followed up their sweep of the Padres by losing three straight to the San Francisco Giants before nabbing the series finale. That said, the Cubs have won 10 of their last 14 overall and sit atop the NL Central standings.
Meanwhile, the Padres have dropped six of their last eight games and have fallen two games back of the Giants for first in the NL West. The Padres can blame some missing bats for their current skid, scoring just 2.25 runs per game over that eight-game span, and things won’t get much easier Monday.
The Padres had trouble the last time they faced Alzolay just five days ago. The right-hander limited the Padres to just one run on three hits while striking out seven over five innings in that game.
On the other side is Weathers, and his last meeting against the Cubs did not go as well. The lefty allowed four runs on seven hits in five innings and, to be honest, Weathers was due for a bit of a regression. While Weathers has a 2.06 ERA, his FIP is 4.31 and he just doesn’t miss a lot of bats. He ranks in the bottom ninth percentile in the MLB when it comes to chase rate and average exit velocity. That doesn’t play well against a solid Cubs lineup.
With the Cubs having the edge in starters and the Padres not showing much pop in their lineup outside of Fernando Tatis Jr., it’s the Cubbies who have value as short road dogs in this matchup.
PREDICTION: Cubs (+105)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to the total, it's a little surprising to see the early money come in on the Over, considering the Under went 2-0-1 in the last series. But that could be to our advantage.
As noted, Alzolay is dealing right now, and pitched very well in his last outing against the Padres. San Diego needs more out of everyone not named Tatis — it’s a little shocking to see this lineup rank 20th in OPS and 26th in home runs.
And even though Weathers was due for a bit of a regression, he's still holding opponents to a .194 batting average this year.
Another thing that should be different in this game is the length of Weathers’ start. He has only pitched more than four innings twice this season, and one of those was last time out against the Cubs, where it burned him.
I don’t expect Padres manager Jayce Tingler to let him go that long this time around and get the ball to a bullpen that leads the Major Leagues in ERA. With the Cubs also having a solid bullpen, this game is a good bet to stay below the number.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-110)
Cubs vs Padres betting card
- Cubs (+105)
- Under 8 (-110)
Picks made on 6/7/2021 at 12:15 p.m. ET
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