It's a nice Monday slate for betting some dingers.
We've gone through a pretty deep schedule and found the best value on the board. Today is the day Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally gets off the duck, while Spencer Torkelson stays hot. Speaking of hot, Brandon Lowe gets some good, old-fashioned Florida weather to hit into.
Here are my best MLB player props and home run picks for Monday, April 14.
Best MLB home run props today
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Brandon Lowe anytime HR (+450 at Caesars) -
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anytime HR (+333 at Caesars) -
Spencer Torkelson anytime HR (+250 at Caesars)
HR picks for April 14
Brandon Lowe anytime HR (+450 at Caesars)
This is another game for the Tampa Bay Rays with ideal temperature and weather. BatX makes this the third-best hitting condition on the slate, behind two domed games.
My MLB picks like Brandon Lowe's matchup here. Not only will he get the wind blowing out in a favorable direction to his spray chart, but he'll also get a pitcher he should fare well against.
Surprisingly, Lowe's career numbers aren't significant compared to Tanner Houck. Perhaps that's why this number is a little higher than I expected. However, based on how he's pitched this season, you'd like how Lowe stacks up.
The pitching mix he'll see is a good one. But this can be overly simplified. Lowe hasn't faced a pitcher this season with a worse hard-hit rate than Houck (53.1%), and no Ray has hit balls more consistently than Lowe this year. I'll take a flier here.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anytime HR (+333 at Caesars)
It has to happen at some point, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still hasn't gone deep yet this season. Today is as good a day as any to change that.
Grant Holmes will take the mound for the Atlanta Braves with a minimal set of data at the MLB level. Last year, he threw just over a thousand pitches and posted modest numbers, including an average hard-hit rate. This year, the early returns have not been positive.
Holmes has already thrown 25% of the pitches he threw last season and has both a barrel rate plus a hard-hit rate in the Bottom 30% of baseball. In addition to that, an expected ERA of nearly 6.00 against an actual one of 4.00 screams that regression is coming.
Despite a homerless start, Vlad sits in the Top 3 amongst Blue Jay players in hard-hit rate against the fastball and curveball. Those two pitches make up almost 70% of Holmes' arsenal. For the price, Vlad has value tonight.
Spencer Torkelson anytime HR (+250 at Caesars)
Spencer Torkelson has been en fuego to start the season. That's also reflected in his price point, which is one of the lowest of any player to go deep today. But there's still a little value in this matchup.
I don't know how Brewers' hurler Tyler Alexander approaches this matchup beyond just not throwing competitive pitches without getting into trouble.
Alexander is a very heavy fastball thrower. The four-seam or cutter accounts for almost 65% of his arsenal. That's excellent news for Torkelson, who started the season with a hard-hit rate against both pitches in the Top 10 percentile of the sport.
It gets even better. The secondary pitch that Alexander mixes in is the change-up. Torkelson has led the Tigers in hard-hit rate against that pitch this season.
It gets better still. Torkelson has been solid against lefties this season and in 2024 with a Top 50 isolated power rating while facing them. This number is low, but deservedly so.
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